英文_高盛_中国餐厅_5月最新情况_表现不一；外卖补贴对现制饮品（FMD）销售构成利好_但需关注价格趋势_16页_804kb

China Restaurants Market Analysis Summary (June 10, 2025)

Key Market Trends

• Restaurant Performance Mixed: Brands show varying recoveries post-pandemic, with delivery subsidies driving volume but concerns on pricing pressure.
• Delivery Dominance: Freshly made drinks (FMD) and QSR chains (e.g., KFC, Pizza Hut) benefit from delivery growth, while dine-in continues to face headwinds.
• Growth in Key Players: Jiumaojiu shows improving trends, Nayuki benefits from delivery volume, Haidilao shows slight recovery.

Brand Performance Highlights

• Haidilao: Post-holiday SSSG improved slightly with resilient table turns; seeks 80% pre-COVID recovery.
• Nayuki: Delivery sales account for ~60% of revenue; SSSG recovery at 59% vs. 2021.
• Gourmet Master: Declining SSSG in China due to consumption sentiment; US operations still strong.
• Jiumaojiu: Post-holiday recovery better than before; new Tai Er format shows promising results.
• Fast-Growing Brands: Mixue, Guming, Chagee, Nayuki show strong delivery growth and volume increases.

Competition & Pricing

• Intensifying price competition, especially in FMD and coffee categories (Luckin, Starbucks).
• Starbucked lowered prices to compete in non-coffee beverages (Nayuki also raised some).
• Expansion in adjacent categories to drive loyalty and trial.

Valuation & Forward Outlook

• Valuation: Most brands trade at high multiples, reflecting optimistic future prospects.
• Target Prices: Mixue and Guming have higher multiples, whereas Gourmet Master and Jiumaojiu are relatively unchanged.
• Outlook: Near-term focus on managing subsidy competition and sustaining post-holiday recovery trends.

Key Risks & Headwinds

1. Price Perception: Delivery subsidies lead to aggressive discounting, affecting profit margins.
2. Competition: Intense competition in delivery and coffee categories.
3. Execution: Meeting recovery targets and managing store-level performance.
4. Regulatory & Geopolitical: FX fluctuations (TW RMB appreciation) and regulatory changes.

🧠 Key Takeaways: Expect cautious optimism in FMD from subsidy tailwinds, cautious view on traditional dining from pricing and volume pressures; closer watch on GmG, Nayuki, Mixue, and Jiumaojiu.