2023-02-14-IMF-新冠肺炎期间政府信贷支持项目成本评估_国际证据（英）_62页_1mb

Evaluating the Costs of Government Credit Support Programs during COVID-19: International Evidence

Abstract Summary

Advanced economies provided over 5 trillion USD in government-supported credit programs during COVID-19. An in-depth analysis of fiscal consequences was missing due to program complexity and reporting issues. This paper estimates subsidies for seven countries' largest credit guarantee programs. In seven countries, 1.7 trillion USD was extended, with an average cash-equivalent subsidy of 67% (37% excluding the US PPP). Subsidies varied widely due to program design differences.

Executive Summary

Governments relied heavily on credit guarantee programs during COVID-19. While the announced credit support was unprecedented, little analysis existed of its fiscal implications. The study estimates the upfront subsidy costs of various credit programs across multiple countries.

Key Findings

• The total credit extended through these programs was approximately 1.7 trillion USD.
• Average cash-equivalent subsidy element was 67% (37% when excluding the US PPP).
• Subsidy element ranged widely across programs due to design choices like eligibility, riskiness, maturity, rate concessions, and fees.
• Example subsidies ranged from 11 to 100% depending on the program.
• Loan take-up was generally lower than program envelopes.

Methodology Brief

The study employs a fair-value approach to estimate upfront subsidy costs. This method calculates the present value of government costs per dollar of loan principal, treating the cost as a grant-equivalent.

| Category                     | Content                                                        |
|------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------|
| **Authors**                  | Gee Hee Hong and Deborah Lucas*                                |
| **Affiliations**             | Gee Hee Hong - IMF; Deborah Lucas - MIT                        |
| **Publication**              | IMF Working Paper WP/23/16, Fiscal Affairs Department         |
| **Dates**                    | Prepared January 2023; Authorized for distribution by Paulo Medas |
| **Key Concept**              | Fair-Value Basis                                               |
| **Program Focus**            | Credit Support Programs during COVID-19: International Evidence |
| **Estimation Approach**      | Cash flows discounted at fair market rates plus risk premium   |
| **Included Countries**       | US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK                    |
| **Program Types**            | Credit guarantees, direct lending, debt moratorium             |
| **Main Finding**             | Subsidies averaged 67% (37% excluding US PPP)                  |