IMF-欧盟国家自动稳定的范围和构成（英）-2023.5-31页_672kb

Automatic Stabilization in EU Countries: Summary

Main Findings

• Overall EU Average: Automatic income stabilization coefficient (ISC) averaged 41.3% in 2019, while demand stabilization coefficient (DSC) averaged 84.7%.
• Country Variation: ISCs ranged from 18.9% in Bulgaria to 57.2% in Belgium. DSCs ranged from 73.1% in Spain to 90.0% in the Netherlands.
• Source of Stabilization: Direct income taxes (29.3% EU average) and social insurance contributions (10.2%)) were the primary sources of income stabilization, while social benefits had a smaller impact (1.8%).
• Income Quintile Analysis: The extent of stabilization was similar across household income groups within countries, but the source differed—taxes more affected high-income households, benefits affected low-income households.
• Stability Over Time: Most countries experienced little change in ISCs or DSCs between 2011 and 2019, with exceptions driven by major reforms (e.g., Hungary's flat tax implementation).

Summary of Results

• Income Stabilization: Direct taxes were the largest contributor to ISC at the EU level. While stabilization was stable across income groups within countries, its composition varied by income (progressivity effect on taxes).
• Demand Stabilization: DSCs averaged 84.7% at the EU level and increased with household income. High-income households can smooth consumption through savings/borrowing, allowing for stronger demand stabilization.
• Composition by Quintiles: ISCs varied by income distribution (e.g., 42.5% for top quintile in EU), but DSCs increased with income (e.g., 81.1% for bottom, 86.6% for top).
• Changes Over Time: ISCs were relatively stable across EU countries, but means-tested benefits reforms caused variations at the low end of income distribution.

Key Conclusions

• Fiscal automatic stabilizers buffer household incomes and consumption effectively, especially during economic shocks.
• Strengthening stabilization at lower income levels remains important despite the heterogeneity in stabilization effects across countries.
• The empirical results highlight the role of progressive taxation and the distributional effects of fiscal policies.

The study used EUROMOD and EU-SILC data (2011–2019) to analyze first-round automatic stabilization effects, finding that direct taxes and social insurance contributions are critical tools for reducing the impact of market income shocks.