IRENA-2023年回顾_气候驱动的全球可再生能源潜在资源和能源需求（英）_47页_7mb

Climate Impact on RE Generation:

• Wind & Solar Variability: 2023's El Niño phase influenced renewable energy generation, with South America experiencing increased solar PV output and East Asia seeing enhanced wind power due to climatic factors. Wind power capacity factor showed high variability (up to 15% annually), while solar PV CF anomalies were relatively smaller.
• Hydropower Challenges: Hydropower generation faced reductions in regions like South America due to decreased precipitation, compounded by reliance on rainfall-dependent systems.

Energy Demand Dynamics:

• Record-breaking 2023 temperatures and extreme weather events reduced heating demand in colder regions but increased cooling needs in warmer areas.
• Energy demand proxies (e.g., cooling/heating degree days) showed significant geographic disparities, with sub-Saharan Africa experiencing higher energy needs due to both climate factors and limited grid capacity.

Seasonal Forecast Value:

• Seasonal climate forecasts, particularly from ECMWF, provide probabilistic insights into renewable energy variability and energy demand patterns. These tools support proactive grid management, hydropower reservoir optimization, and anticipation of demand peaks, even in the tropics.

Regional Analysis:

• Africa: Countries like South Africa saw hydropower surpluses offsetting wind/solar deficits, while Malawi and Zambia faced challenges balancing supply and demand under climate stress.
• Asia: Middle Eastern nations experienced heightened energy demand but constrained RE generation due to climate anomalies, highlighting the need for diversified energy mixes.
• South America: Brazil's hydropower vulnerability under El Niño was mitigated by solar and wind contributions, but regional collaboration was essential for efficient power balancing.

Diversification & Data Imperatives:

• Diversified energy portfolios (solar, wind, hydropower, storage, geothermal) are critical for resilience against climate variability, particularly in regions over-reliant on single sources.
• Robust, harmonized energy data collection (generation, installed capacity, weather data) is needed to enhance climate-informed planning, forecasting accuracy, and adaptation strategies.

Policy & Future Directions:

• Policymakers should leverage seasonal forecasts and promote integrated energy-climate strategies.
• Regional collaboration and cross-border energy infrastructure optimization are vital for addressing climate-induced supply-demand dynamics.
• Investing in climate-resilient energy infrastructure and inclusive data-sharing frameworks can accelerate sustainable energy transitions.