2025-06-13-花旗集团-澳大利亚和新西兰经济_6月16日开始的一周关键澳新数据预测_10页_150kb

Summary of Citigroup Economics Report: Australia and New Zealand

Key Data Forecasts

• New Zealand GDP: Q1 growth forecast at 0.8% by Citigroup, higher than the RBNZ's May MPS projection of 0.4% and the prior estimate or nowcast.

• Australian Labour Force: Employment change expected to be relatively stable; specific data points for May include unchanged unemployment rate at 4.1%.

Citi's Analysis and Commentary

• NZ GDP Growth: Driven by stronger-than-expected retail sales supporting services industries, contributing about 0.7pp to GDP. Goods-producing industries also show acceleration.

• Labour Market Tightness: Australian labour market remains constrained, with steady unemployment rates. RBA's asymmetric reaction function tilts towards dovish policies if downside risks appear.

Forward-Looking Outlook

• Monetary Policy: RBA likely keeps OCR unchanged at 3.25% unless significant data revisions or global risks materialize later in the year.

• Economic Growth: Services sector buoyancy ahead of Trump's tariff announcements increases global growth risks. Domestic activity shows weakening, with a persistent economic gap from a year ago.

Caveats

• Data volatility and potential revisions from StatsNZ could alter outcomes.
• Broader risks include global uncertainties and domestic factors like flooding in NSW.

End of Summary