2007年-世界发展银行全球_Remittances_and_the_Brain_Drain_15页_240kb

Summary of "Remittances and the Brain Drain: Do More Skilled Migrants Remit More?"

Core Content

This article investigates the relationship between skilled migration and remittances, challenging the conventional belief that more skilled migrants remit more. It presents both theoretical and empirical evidence to show that skilled migrants may actually remit less than unskilled ones due to various behavioral and economic factors.

Main Viewpoints

• Immigration Trends: In recent years, receiving countries have increasingly favored skilled migrants. This has raised concerns in sending countries about the loss of talent and the potential negative impact on development.

• Brain Drain Debate: The brain drain literature traditionally argues that skilled migration harms sending countries by reducing the labor force. However, the article suggests that the impact on remittances is not straightforward.

• Skilled Migrants and Remittances: Skilled migrants, despite earning more, may remit less due to:

  • Spending more time abroad, which weakens their ties to the home country.
  • Reunifying with family in the host country, reducing the incentive to send money back.

• Model of Remittances: A simple economic model is presented to illustrate how the migration of skilled workers affects remittances. The model shows that while higher wages may increase remittances, the reunification effect could offset this, leading to a lower overall propensity to remit.

Key Information

I. Descriptive Evidence on Skilled Migrants

• Family Reunification: Skilled migrants are more likely to reunite with close family in the host country, which may reduce their remittance flows.
• European Data: Using the European Community Household Panel (1994–2001), the study finds that skilled non-EU immigrants are less likely to drop out of the panel, suggesting a higher likelihood of staying abroad.
• Attrition Analysis: The probability of staying in the host country is influenced by factors like household size, age, and length of stay. The home country dummy variable is strongly significant, indicating that conditions at home affect migration decisions.

II. Theoretical Model

• Household Composition: The model assumes a household is divided into close and distant relatives, with close relatives more likely to receive remittances.
• Utility Function: A migrant's utility is derived from their own consumption and the consumption of their family members, both at home and abroad.
• Reunification Effect: Higher-skilled migrants may reunify more with their family, reducing the incentive to remit. This effect could outweigh the wage effect, leading to lower remittances.
• Empirical Equation: The article proposes an equation to estimate the relationship between remittances and migration, incorporating migrant wages, family income, and the proportion of skilled migrants.

III. Empirical Evidence

• Data Sources: The study uses the Docquier and Marfouk (2004) dataset, which provides detailed information on the composition of migration and educational achievements.

• Remittance Data: Remittance data are sourced from the IMF and include workers’ remittances, compensation of employees, and capital transfers.

• Estimating Equation: The following equation is used:

  $$
  \left(\frac{R}{P}\right){it} = \gamma_0 + \gamma_1 \left(D_t \frac{M}{P}\right){it} + \gamma_2 \left(\frac{M}{P}\right){it} + \gamma_3 \left(\frac{m_S}{P}\right){it} + \gamma_4 \left(\frac{m_U}{p_U} \frac{Y}{P}\right){it} + \gamma_5 \left(\frac{m_S}{p_S} \frac{Y}{P}\right){it} + \varepsilon_{it}
  $$

  where $R$ is total remittances, $P$ is total population, $M$ is total migration, $m_S$ and $m_U$ are skilled and unskilled migrants, $Y$ is total income, and $D_t$ is a time dummy variable.

• Key Findings:

  • The coefficient on the share of skilled migrants ($\gamma_3$) is significantly negative, suggesting that a higher proportion of skilled migrants is associated with lower remittances.
  • The overall effect of the brain drain on remittances is not statistically significant, indicating that the relationship is complex and not straightforward.
  • The model suggests that the reunification effect may dominate the wage effect, leading to a lower propensity to remit from skilled migrants.

Conclusion

The article concludes that the brain drain does not necessarily lead to higher remittances. In fact, skilled migrants may remit less due to stronger family ties in the host country and longer stays abroad. The empirical results support the theoretical model, showing that the relationship between skilled migration and remittances is nuanced and requires careful analysis. The findings have important implications for policymakers in sending countries, who should not assume that skilled migration automatically leads to increased remittances.