【世界银行】防止教育中的失落一代：了解缅甸失学儿童的状况-2024.11_63页_2mb

Summary of "Preventing a Lost Generation: Understanding the State of Out of School Children in Myanmar"

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the current state of out-of-school children (OOSC) in Myanmar, focusing on the impact of the pandemic, the military takeover, and ongoing conflicts on educational access and outcomes. It highlights the demographic and geographical variations in OOSC rates, identifies the determinants of out-of-school status, and explores potential opportunities for improving education access.

Main Points

1. Overall Trends in OOSC Rates

• The proportion of OOSC in Myanmar has decreased from 28% in 2023 to 21% in 2024, although it remains higher than the 18% recorded in 2017.
• The decline in non-enrollment has been more pronounced for females (approximately 10 percentage points) compared to males (4.2 percentage points).
• Rural areas continue to have a higher OOSC rate (22%) than urban areas (17%).

2. Age Group Variations in OOSC Rates

• Preprimary School Age (5-year-olds): Over one-third (37%) of 5-year-olds are not enrolled in school.
• Primary and Lower Secondary School Age (6–14 years): A substantial portion of children in these age groups are not in school, with 45% of adolescents aged 15–17 being out of school.
• Learning Adjusted Years of Schooling (LAYS): The average LAYS for the current cohort of children is projected to decline by about two years due to prolonged school closures, which has stalled educational progress.

3. Regional Disparities

• The Sagaing region has the highest OOSC rates: 20% at the primary level, 40% at the lower secondary level, and 64% at the upper secondary level.
• Conflict Intensity: High-conflict areas have significantly higher OOSC rates, with primary-level OOSC rates up to 10 percentage points higher or over five times that of low-conflict areas.

4. Determinants of Out-of-School Status

• Age: Older children, especially those in upper secondary, are more likely to be out of school.
• Language: Children who speak minority languages are more likely to be out of school.
• Socioeconomic Status: Poverty remains a key barrier, with insufficient household income being the main reason for school dropout, accounting for 60% of dropouts before 2019.
• Gender: Females are less likely to be out of school than males, with the most significant effect observed in upper secondary school-age children (14% less likely to be out of school than males).
• Disability: Children with disabilities face higher OOSC rates.
• Geographical Location: Rural areas have higher OOSC rates than urban areas.

5. Challenges and Barriers to Education Access

• School Closures: Prolonged closures due to the pandemic and military takeover have severely disrupted education, with a total of 532 school closure days between February 2020 and February 2022.
• Safety Concerns: After the pandemic, safety concerns became a key reason for school dropout, with 10–17% of students citing this as a reason.
• Economic Factors: The economic downturn, including inflation and reduced public investment, has worsened the situation, with education expenditure dropping to 5.6% of total public spending in FY 2021/2022.
• Displacement: Internal displacement due to conflict has further exacerbated the issue, with 18% of public schools still closed as of May 2022.

6. Employment Rates of OOSC

• A significant proportion of OOSC are engaged in the labor force, with 61% of OOSC working compared to only 9% of school-enrolled children.
• Gender and Location Differences: Male OOSC have a higher employment rate than female OOSC, and rural OOSC are more likely to be employed than urban OOSC.

7. Opportunities and Aspirations

• Child Safety: 91% of respondents believe that improving child safety would enhance enrollment.
• Financial Subsidies: 85% of the population supports providing financial subsidies to certain households to improve enrollment.
• Teacher Salaries: 80% of respondents agree that increasing teacher salaries would improve teacher attendance.
• Public Attitude: A strong majority (96%) believes every child up to 18 years should receive quality education regardless of background, and 94% supports equal access to education and job opportunities for both genders.

Key Information

• The report uses data from the Myanmar Subnational Phone Survey 2024 (MSPS 2024) and Myanmar Living Conditions Survey 2017 (MLCS 2017), along with ACLED conflict data and qualitative data from focus group discussions (FGD) and key informant interviews (KII).
• Regression models are used to analyze the determinants of out-of-school status, focusing on primary and secondary school-age children.
• The learning poverty rate in Myanmar is projected to reach 100%, indicating a severe lack of basic literacy and numeracy skills among children.
• The economic impact of the educational crisis is significant, with potential long-term effects on human capital accumulation and future earnings.

Conclusion

The report underscores the urgent need for targeted interventions to reintegrate OOSC into the education system, improve teacher attendance, and address the root causes of school dropout, such as poverty, safety concerns, and displacement. It emphasizes that investing in education access and quality is crucial for Myanmar's long-term socioeconomic development and the well-being of its future generations.