2025-06-04-Jefferies-联合信贷银行（UCG）_退出俄罗斯_潜在影响是什么_7页_141kb

Summary of "Exit from Russia: what's the potential impact?"

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the potential impact of UniCredit's exit from its Russian subsidiary, AO UniCredit, on its capital and earnings. It outlines the implications of a reported non-binding bid by two Dubai-based funds, Asas Capital and Mada Capital, which could amount to $1.2bn. The analysis includes an assessment of the impact on UniCredit's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital and its earnings per share (EPS).

Main Points

1. Potential Capital Impact

• CET1 Impact: The estimated CET1 capital hit from the sale of AO UniCredit is 24 basis points.
• Capital Gain (Loss): The sale price of €1.1bn, based on a book value of €3.3bn, results in a capital loss of €2.3bn.
• Threshold Deductions: An increase in threshold deductions is assumed to reduce CET1 by 0.2bps.
• RWA Reduction: A significant reduction in Risk-Weighted Assets (RWAs) is expected, estimated at 11.5bps.
• CET1 Pre-Disposal: The bank's CET1 was 46bn€ before the disposal.
• CET1 Post-Disposal: The CET1 is expected to decrease to 44bn€.
• CET1 Ratio: The CET1 ratio is projected to drop from 16.1% to 15.9%.

2. Earnings Impact

• 2024 Net Income: UniCredit generated €577m in net income from Russia, representing 6% of the group.
• Future Projections: Visible Alpha consensus estimates a €270m contribution in 2026 and €135m in 2027.
• EPS Impact: The sale is projected to reduce EPS by 3% in 2026 and 1% in 2027, which is considered modest.

3. Valuation and Market Context

• Sale Price: The sale price is estimated at €1.1bn, which is lower than the book value of €3.3bn.
• P/E Ratio: The valuation implies a P/E ratio below 2x based on 2024 earnings in Russia.
• Political and Regulatory Considerations: The sale must be approved by Russian authorities and may face competition. Additionally, the sale price must comply with mandatory discounts on Russian assets owned by Western companies.

4. Strategic Implications

• Removal of Overhang: The sale could remove an overhang on the stock and de-risk the bank's excess capital.
• Ruble Revaluation: The bank's excess capital benefited from a Ruble revaluation in the last quarter, contributing +26bps to CET1.
• Compensatory Strategy: The recently acquired stake in Alpha (a Greek lender) can help offset the earnings loss. With a projected net income of €1.1bn in 2027, UniCredit is expected to gain a €0.2-0.3bn contribution from Alpha.

Key Information

• Transaction Details: The bid is non-binding and expected to be announced this week.
• Political Support: The deal was already discussed with the Italian government to gauge political support.
• Analyst Views: The report is authored by Marco Nicolai, CFA, Alexander Demetriou, and Joseph Dickerson, all of whom are non-US registered analysts.
• Investment Recommendation: The stock is currently rated BUY, with a price target of €65.80 (a +15% increase from the current price of €57.24).
• Market Cap: The current market cap is €76.8bn or $87.5bn.
• Risks: Potential risks include increased political risk, NPL formation, and sovereign risk concerns due to ECB policy normalization.

Conclusion

The sale of AO UniCredit could result in a modest impact on UniCredit's capital and earnings, primarily due to the significant reduction in RWAs and capital loss. However, the removal of an overhang on the stock and de-risking of excess capital could be beneficial. The acquired stake in Alpha is expected to offset some of the earnings loss in the coming years, making the transaction a strategic move that could improve the bank's financial position and reduce exposure to the Russian market.