2009年-世界发展银行全球_Mongolia___Livestock_Sector_Study_45页_4mb

Mongolia Livestock Sector Study Summary

Core Content

This report, titled Mongolia Livestock Sector Study Volume I - Synthesis Report, provides an analysis of the livestock sector in Mongolia, highlighting its current state, drivers, and future directions. It was prepared by Andrew Goodland, Dr. Dennis Sheehy, and Dr. Tara Shine, drawing on five working papers commissioned by the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Light Industry (MOFALI) in 2006 and 2007.

Main Points

1. Sector Overview

• The livestock sector is a crucial part of Mongolia’s economy and culture, though its share of GDP has declined to around 20%.
• Approximately 40% of the workforce is directly dependent on the livestock sector.
• The sector is dominated by extensive livestock production systems, which rely on natural grasslands and are inherently vulnerable to environmental and climatic risks.

2. Sector Trends

• Livestock numbers have reached a historical high of 42 million (as of December 2008).
• There is a notable shift in herd composition, with a higher proportion of goats.
• Migration patterns, especially to Ulaanbaatar, are changing the structure of the sector.
• The sector is in a state of flux, with no clear direction for future development.

3. Herder Typologies

• The report identifies five types of herders:
  • Wealthy households (over 500 livestock): 6% of herding households, with good access to resources and markets.
  • Full-time herders (200–500 livestock): 25% of herding households, often from middle or lower wealth levels.
  • Poor households (under 200 livestock): Highly vulnerable to dzud, dependent on state support.
  • Periodic herders: Come in and out of the sector based on economic conditions, often as a safety net.
  • Part-time herders: Supplement income with other activities like "ninja" mining or seasonal migration.

4. Challenges and Constraints

• The sector is low-input and high-risk, with limited access to capital, inputs, and markets.
• Dzud (extreme winter weather) and climate change pose significant threats to livestock survival and economic stability.
• Land tenure and pasture management are unclear, leading to conflicts and environmental degradation.
• There is a lack of well-developed feed and fodder markets, risk mitigation tools, and supply chains.

5. Government Role and Policy

• The government has a passive role in encouraging modernization of the livestock sector.
• Public expenditure is low and skewed towards the crop sector, driven by concerns over food security and import dependence.
• The report emphasizes the need for a shift in herder mindset towards intensification and quality improvement.

Key Recommendations

• Access to land and water must be clarified and enforced to support sustainable production.
• Organization of herders into groups can improve management, reduce marketing costs, and enhance access to inputs and markets.
• Development of the feed industry is critical to supporting intensification and improving productivity.
• Support services such as veterinary care, research, and extension services need to be strengthened.
• Risk mitigation and disaster management should be prioritized, including the development of index-based livestock insurance.
• Financial markets should be innovated to provide tailored products for herders and rural entrepreneurs.
• Social services in rural areas are essential to prevent migration and support livelihoods.

Conclusion

The livestock sector in Mongolia is at a critical juncture, facing both environmental and economic challenges. While it remains a vital part of the economy and culture, the current structure and practices are unsustainable and vulnerable. The report calls for a more active government role in promoting a modern, market-oriented, and sustainable livestock industry, emphasizing the need for policy reform, investment in infrastructure, and support for herders to adapt to new economic realities.

References

• Sere and Steinfeld (1996)
• Johnson et al (2006)
• Sheehy et al (2006)
• Asian Development Bank (1997)
• Nixson and Walters (2006)
• Mearns (2004)
• Batima (2005)
• GOM (2009)

Appendices

• Currency Equivalents: 1 USD = 1,248 MNT
• Fiscal Year: January 1 – December 31
• Weights and Measures: Metric System
• Abbreviations and Acronyms
• Mongolian Terms

Summary of Key Findings

• The livestock sector is a major economic and cultural pillar of Mongolia, though its contribution to GDP has declined.
• Dzud and climate change are major threats to the sector.
• Herder typologies reveal significant diversity in livelihood strategies.
• The sector is low-input, high-risk, and lacks market orientation.
• Public goods and services are essential for the development of a sustainable and commercially viable sector.
• Policy and legal reforms are necessary to address land and water access, market failure, and risk management.
• Financial and social services need to be improved to support herders and rural communities.

Future Outlook

• The sector must evolve to serve multiple roles: economic growth, social safety net, and natural resource management.
• Modernization and intensification are needed, but must be done sustainably and with consideration of ecological limits.
• Collaboration between the government, international donors, and the private sector is crucial for the sector's transformation.