专题报告：全球钢铁工业格局演化之印度篇-20231117-华泰期货-24页_1mb

India's steel industry has experienced significant growth over the past two decades, evolving from 2.7 million tonnes in 2000 to 125 million tonnes produced in 2022, accounting for 66% of global output. This positions India as the world's second-largest steel producer. Key factors include increased domestic consumption driven by infrastructure, urbanization, and industrialization, with 2022 per capita consumption at 811 kg. In terms of production, India relies on mixed steelmaking processes, with growth in direct reduced iron (DRI) and electric arc furnace (EAF) usage, but plans under the National Steel Policy 2017 aim for increased blast furnace-steelmaking to reach a 300 million tonnes capacity by 2030. Trade dynamics have shifted from net exporting to net importing in 2022, with corresponding increases in raw material imports like coking coal, which India already imports at a high rate. This transition could challenge global supply chains, as India's demand growth may lead to greater dependence on imports for ores and coking coal. The steel sector faces risks such as lower-than-expected consumption and global economic slowdowns, while monitoring India's role in expanding global steel demand remains crucial.

India's Steel Industry Summary:

- Growth Overview:
  -产量 Rapid increase from 2.7 million tonnes in 2000 to 125 million tonnes in 2022, led by infrastructure and industrialization.
  -人均 Consumption rose to 811 kg in 2022, larger than other Asian nations but still relies heavily on construction and infrastructure.
- Production and Processes:
  - 2022: 125 million tonnes produced, with capacities reaching 157 million tonnes.
  - Mixed processes: Short (54%) vs. long (46%) for example blast furnace-steelmaking is increasing.
  - Direct reduced iron booming at 788% CAGR, but coal-based DRI has efficiency issues.
- Trade:
  - Shifted to net importing in 2022 due to domestic demand surge and policy measures.
  - Increased DRI imports in 2022, projecting 3,000 MT annual imports by 2030 despite global shortages.
- Policy and Outlook:
  - National Steel Policy 2017 targets 300 million tonnes capacity by 2030, potentially turning India from ore/coal exporter to importer.
  - 2030 projections increase iron ore and coking coal demand substantially, driving global supply challenges.
- Risks and Strategies:
  - Monitor India's economic growth and its impact on global steel demand.
  - Warning on risks include low consumption forecasts or economic setbacks.