亚开行-通往中国未来宜居城市和城市群的桥梁：高质量城市发展的政策机遇（英）-2021.10-83页_1mb

Summary of "Bridge to Future Livable Cities and City Clusters in the People's Republic of China"

Core Content

This working paper explores the policy opportunities for high-quality urban development in the People's Republic of China (PRC), emphasizing the need for sustainable, inclusive, and resilient urban planning in the context of rapid urbanization and its long-term challenges. It outlines the historical achievements of urbanization, recent policy shifts, and future trends, while highlighting institutional and structural challenges that hinder sustainable development.

Main Issues and Challenges

• Environmental and Social Costs of Urbanization: The PRC's rapid urbanization over the past 40 years has led to significant environmental degradation, including ecosystem fragmentation, pollution, and resource overuse. It has also increased regional and urban-rural disparities.

• Urban Sprawl and Unsustainable Growth: The traditional model of urban development, based on land-based expansion and a GDP-growth focus, has resulted in massive real estate oversupply, inefficient land use, and environmental degradation. This model is increasingly unsustainable.

• Institutional and Governance Challenges: Local governments rely heavily on revenue from new land leases, which is not a sustainable source. There are issues with overlapping and contradictory policies, and cross-sector and cross-jurisdictional coordination remains difficult.

• Demographic Shifts: The PRC is expected to face a slowing urbanization rate, with a significant population decline by 2100. The aging population and shrinking cities will require a shift in urban planning priorities.

Key Findings and Best Practices

• Livable, Green, Inclusive, and Healthy Cities: The PRC needs to transition from car-centric, resource-intensive urban models to people-centered, pedestrian-friendly, and environmentally sustainable cities. This includes promoting green-circular-economy cities, zero-waste initiatives, and healthy and age-friendly urban environments.

• Low-Carbon and Climate-Resilient Cities: There is a need to reduce carbon emissions and enhance resilience to climate change. This involves integrating smart technologies, improving urban management, and adopting sustainable land use practices.

• Urban Rehabilitation and Infill Development: Existing urban areas should be rehabilitated and retrofitted to increase efficiency, livability, and quality. This includes improving public services, green spaces, and waste management systems.

• Urban-Rural Integration and Town Upgrading: The PRC must focus on integrating urban and rural areas, promoting the upgrading of towns and villages, and reducing disparities between urban centers and their peripheries.

• City Cluster and Metropolitan Governance: A coordinated governance model for city clusters and metropolitan areas is essential. This includes the development of a "territorial system of two speeds" that differentiates high-speed urban areas from slow-speed green territories.

• Demand-Based Development: There is a need to move away from overdevelopment and toward demand-based urban planning that aligns with the needs of a new knowledge-based economy and aging population.

Policy Recommendations

• Livable, Green, and Inclusive Cities: Develop policies that prioritize people-centered urban design, green infrastructure, and social inclusion, especially for vulnerable groups and small enterprises.

• Low-Carbon, Climate-Resilient, and Smart-City Development: Integrate smart technologies and data systems to enhance urban management and resilience. Promote low-carbon development and climate adaptation strategies.

• Healthy and Age-Friendly Cities: Implement health impact assessments and create urban environments that support aging populations, including accessible public spaces and healthcare services.

• Urban Rehabilitation and Infill Development: Focus on rehabilitating existing urban areas to improve livability and efficiency. Limit new greenfield development and prioritize sustainable land use.

• City Cluster and Metropolitan Governance Coordination: Establish a unified spatial plan for coastal regions and promote cross-jurisdictional coordination. Develop sustainable strategies that integrate urban and rural areas.

• Policy Alignment and Cross-Sector Coordination: Align policies across sectors and levels of government to support sustainable development. Encourage public-private partnerships and improve incentives for private investment in sustainable projects.

• Long-Term and Large-Scale "Bridge to the Future": Invest in long-term, large-scale urban transformation strategies that ensure sustainable development, environmental protection, and resilience to future challenges.

Conclusion

The PRC has made significant progress in urbanization, but its current model is unsustainable. A shift toward high-quality, sustainable urban development is essential to address long-term challenges such as aging populations, slowing urbanization, and environmental degradation. The paper emphasizes the importance of policy alignment, institutional reform, and cross-sector collaboration in achieving these goals.

Key Trends and Statistics

• Urbanization Ratio: Increased from 19% in 1978 to 60.6% in 2020, expected to reach 70.6% by 2030 and 80% by 2050.
• Poverty Reduction: Over 850 million people lifted out of poverty since 1978.
• Economic Growth: GDP growth averaged about 10% annually from 1978 to 2019.
• Demographic Transition: Population is expected to halve by 2100, with a significant aging trend.
• Urban Sprawl: Greenfield development has led to massive real estate oversupply, especially in remote areas.
• Environmental Red Lines: Included in the 13th Five-Year Plan, but limited in effectiveness in curbing urban sprawl.

References

• The paper draws on contributions from ADB staff, consultants, and researchers, including Douglas Webster, Jianming Cai, Ali Cheshmehzangi, Xiu Yang, Hailong Li, Yuebin Xu, and others.
• It references global initiatives such as the Healthy China 2030 Plan, the Made in China 2025 Plan, and the concept of "smart cities."
• The paper also incorporates insights from the Stuttgart Regional Association and the Network of European Metropolitan Regions and Areas (METREX).