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Summary of "Continuity and Contingency in USAF Posture Planning"

Core Content

This document explores the challenges and considerations in long-term U.S. Air Force (USAF) posture planning, emphasizing the interplay between continuity and contingency. It is based on a RAND Project AIR FORCE study commissioned by the USAF to support the development of the Strategic Posture Annex. The report analyzes historical conflict trends, strategy choices, path dependence, and path aversion to provide insights into how these factors influence the USAF's global presence and posture.

Main Viewpoints

• Posture Planning is a Juggling Act: Due to the slow and difficult nature of changing military posture, planners must consider a long time horizon. They must balance long-term trends with immediate, unpredictable crises.

• Conflict Trends Are Limited for Long-Term Planning: While recent conflict trends can inform near-term posture demands, they are not reliable indicators for long-term planning. Long-term trends such as declining death rates or conflict durations are less relevant. The decision to use military force is not primarily driven by these trends, but by strategic and political considerations.

• Contingent Events Drive Posture Changes: Major historical shocks—such as the beginning and end of the Cold War, the Vietnam War, and the 9/11 attacks—have been the primary agents of change in USAF posture. Proactive strategic changes are rare and tend to have smaller impacts compared to unforeseen events.

• Posture is Characterized by Stability and Punctuated Change: The USAF has historically maintained a stable posture in key regions, with major bases established in the 1940s and 1950s remaining in use for decades. These bases are often resistant to change due to path dependence, which creates feedback loops that reinforce existing structures.

• Path Aversion Can Constrain Posture: Path aversion, the reluctance to engage in certain types of military operations, has historically influenced posture decisions. For example, the U.S. avoided direct military intervention in Vietnam and El Salvador. However, these effects are often short-lived, and the U.S. has since expanded its presence in the Middle East and other regions.

• Geography Remains Relevant: The geographic location of airfields and bases continues to be a key factor in posture planning. Europe and the Middle East have been the most frequently used regions in operational scenarios, while Asia and other areas are less utilized due to remoteness and lack of infrastructure.

Key Information

• Strategic Context: The USAF has developed a 30-year strategy and a 20-year Strategic Master Plan to guide its global posture. These documents aim to align planning with strategic goals and anticipate future demands.

• Analytical Framework: The study developed a dynamic model of U.S. global posture that integrates continuity, change, and randomness. It also introduced the concept of "path dependence" to explain how historical decisions influence current and future posture.

• Operational Vignettes: The researchers analyzed 21 operational vignettes (selected from a pool of 150) to understand how different scenarios affect posture requirements. These vignettes included a range of conflict types, from large-scale wars to terrorism and cyber attacks.

• Path Dependence and Bases: Path dependence is evident at multiple levels—individual bases, countries, and regions. Major bases like Kadena Air Base in Japan have remained in use for over 70 years due to this phenomenon.

• Path Aversion and Its Impact: Path aversion has historically limited the U.S. military's involvement in certain conflicts and regions. However, as public and political attitudes shift, this constraint may weaken over time.

Recommendations

• Test Robustness of Posture Plans: USAF posture planners should test their 30-year plans against the failure of key assumptions and a wide range of possible demands. This includes designing for multiple alternative futures and reducing reliance on single assumptions.

• Incorporate Scenario and Contingency Analysis: Long-range planning should include techniques such as massive scenario generation and contingent event analysis to account for cognitive and institutional biases. These methods help planners consider a broader set of potential challenges and demands.

• Balance Stickiness and Agility: The ideal posture should balance stability ("stickiness") with the ability to adapt ("agility"). This means maintaining a strong presence in key locations while being able to rapidly respond to out-of-area demands. The development of small, scalable facilities with partner nations is an example of efforts to increase agility, though these can also be subject to path dependence.

Conclusion

The study highlights the importance of understanding both long-term trends and unforeseen events in shaping USAF posture. While path dependence provides stability, it must be balanced with the need for agility in the face of changing global demands. Geography continues to play a central role in posture planning, and the ability to adapt to new scenarios is essential for maintaining a robust and flexible global presence.