2015-04-19-世界经济论坛-Economics_of_Non-Communicable_Diseases_in_Indonesia_16页_3mb

Summary of "The Economics of Non-Communicable Diseases in Indonesia" (April 2015)

Overview and Purpose
The report analyzes the economic burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Indonesia, emphasizing their threat to health, development, and economic growth. It provides new data on NCD economic costs in Indonesia and compares them with India and China, aiming to advance understanding of expected economic output losses and stimulate discussions on NCD impacts on families, businesses, and society. Key components include a snapshot of NCD prevalence, estimates of lost economic output due to labor supply reductions, and cross-country comparisons.

NCDs and Prevalence of Risk Factors
Indonesia is undergoing epidemiological transition, with NCDs increasing due to aging population, rapid urbanization, and changing occupations. Common NCDs in 2012 include cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes, and mental health conditions. Risk factors are high, such as smoking (67% of males), alcohol consumption, and hypertension (29.1% of adults). Diabetes prevalence is projected to double by 2030, outpacing population growth. NCDs accounted for more disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) than communicable diseases, with mental health disorders contributing significantly.

Economic Burden in Indonesia, 2012-2030
Using an updated WHO EPIC model, the economic loss from NCDs (excluding other pathways) is estimated at $4.47 trillion (or $17,863 per capita) from 2012 to 2030. This equates to 5.1 times Indonesia's 2012 GDP and about 170 times its 2012 health expenditure. Cardiovascular disease accounts for 39.6% of losses, followed by mental health (21.9%) and respiratory diseases (18.4%). Diabetes and cancer contribute smaller shares.

Comparison with India and China
Indonesia's NCD burden is substantial compared to neighbors. Total loss from 2012-2030 is $4.47 trillion, slightly higher than India's $4.32 trillion but lower than China's $29.4 trillion. Per capita losses are higher in Indonesia ($17,863) than India ($8,733) but lower than China ($21,794). Relative to GDP, Indonesia's loss is 5.1 times its 2012 GDP, while India's is lower.

Conclusion
NCDs impose a significant economic burden on Indonesia, potentially hindering growth if no interventions are taken. Investing in NCD prevention and treatment offers high returns on investment, ranging from 90% to 3,700%, supporting efforts to shift from viewing health as a cost to an asset for sustainable growth. Policy recommendations include strategic resource allocation and collaboration among stakeholders for a holistic approach.

Appendix Notes
The EPIC model used has limitations, such as inconsistent labor definitions and errors in capital accumulation, which may lead to underestimation of impacts. Future model updates will address these to include other economic pathways.