2015年-WEF世界经济论坛_Economics_of_Non-Communicable_Diseases_in_Indonesia_16页_3mb

Summary of The Economics of Non-Communicable Diseases in Indonesia (April 2015)

Core Content

This report by the World Economic Forum provides an analysis of the economic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Indonesia, comparing it with India and China. It highlights the growing threat of NCDs to Indonesia's population health and economic development, emphasizing the need for investment in prevention and treatment.

Main Points

• NCDs as a Health and Economic Threat: NCDs are a significant threat to Indonesia's health, development, and economic growth. The country has experienced rapid economic growth and demographic changes, which have increased the prevalence of NCDs.

• Epidemiological Transition: Indonesia is undergoing a shift from communicable diseases and early life mortality to NCDs. This transition is characterized by increased life expectancy, urbanization, and changes in lifestyle that contribute to NCD risk factors.

• Prevalence of NCDs: The most prevalent NCDs in Indonesia are cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes, and mental health conditions. These diseases are expected to cause a substantial loss in economic output.

• Economic Burden: The report estimates that NCDs will cost Indonesia $4.47 trillion in lost economic output from 2012 through 2030, equivalent to $17,863 per capita. This loss is 5.1 times Indonesia's 2012 GDP and 170 times its total health expenditure in 2012.

• Impact by Disease: The economic loss attributed to each NCD is as follows:

  • Cardiovascular diseases: 39.6%
  • Mental health conditions: 21.9%
  • Respiratory diseases: 18.4%
  • Cancer: 15.7%
  • Diabetes: 4.5%

• Comparison with India and China: Indonesia's NCD burden is more severe than India's, but less than China's. Indonesia's total output loss is $4.47 trillion, while India's is $4.32 trillion and China's is $29.4 trillion. On a per capita basis, Indonesia's loss is $17,863, compared to $21,794 in China.

• Economic Implications: The loss in economic output due to NCDs is expected to significantly impede Indonesia's development if no interventions are made. The report also suggests that the economic impact is likely underestimated, as the model only considers the effect on the labour supply.

• Returns on Investment (ROI): There are promising ROI estimates for NCD interventions. For example, a programme in Singapore to reduce saturated fat intake through subsidies had an estimated ROI of over 1,100%. In the US, a healthcare programme targeting high-risk patients had an ROI of 3,700%.

• Recommendations: The report recommends that stakeholders carefully allocate resources to both treatment and prevention initiatives, based on cost-effectiveness and the national context. A holistic and systemic approach is needed to shift the focus from "healthy as a cost" to "healthy as an investment."

Key Information

• Model Used: The World Health Organization's (WHO) EPIC model was used to estimate the economic burden of NCDs. The model was updated and corrected in 2015 to improve accuracy.

• Corrections to EPIC Model:

  • Inconsistent definition of labour (working population vs. effective labour).
  • Incorrect update function for physical capital.
  • Fixed treatment cost for all diseases and countries.
  • Morbidity was not factored into the model.
  • Fixed starting year GDP value to be more accurate.

• Data Sources: WHO Global Burden of Disease estimates, World Development Indicators, Penn World Tables, and other economic and health databases.

Conclusion

NCDs are imposing a significant economic burden on Indonesia, which is expected to grow in the coming decades. The report underscores the importance of investing in population health to mitigate this burden and enhance economic growth. It also highlights the potential for high ROI from effective NCD interventions, encouraging a shift in perspective from viewing health as a cost to seeing it as a valuable investment.