20231120-招银国际-Guidance_raised_and_we_stay_positive_in_LT_10页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US) Report

Key Highlights:
- Strong 3Q23 performance: Revenue and net profit increased by 93% and 134% YoY, beating consensus estimates, driven by better RevPAR recovery and robust retail sales growth. Retail segment saw a 196% sales increase, with e-commerce contributing to higher GP margins.
- Positive outlook: Despite conservative views on the hotel sector for 4Q23E and 1Q24E, Atour is expected to outperform due to its price-to-quality ratio, ongoing hotels expansion (1,112 hotels, targeting 280 by FY23E), and new product launches (e.g., Atour Light 3.0 and Atour 4.0).
- Guidance raised: FY23E sales growth target increased to 90%+, supported by booming retail sales (forecast RMB900mn). New hotel versions show shorter payback periods.
Recommendation:
- Maintain BUY rating with a target price of US$23.93 (up 25.2% from current price), based on 30x FY23E P/E, valuing the stock attractively compared to peers.
- Earnings revised: CMBIGM raised FY23E/FY24E/FY25E net profit by 17%, 8%, and 6% respectively, reflecting strong-than-expected performance.
Financial Projections:
- Revenue and profit margins: Expanding at high rates (e.g., 92% YoY for FY23E revenue), with GP margins rising to 42.1% in 3Q23. Long-term growth potential from retail and hotels segments.
- Peer comparison: Valuation metrics show upside, with a 12x EV/EBITDA multiple, below industry average. Compared to peers, Atour's faster sales and EBITDA growth justify its higher P/E.
Risk Factors: Market volatility, reliance on post-pandemic demand recovery, competition in the hotel sector, and potential macroeconomic impacts highlighted in disclosures.