20131007-巴黎银行证券-SPOTLIGHT_ON_ASIA_24页_1mb

报告摘要

BNP Paribas Investment Summary (7 October 2013)

Core Content Overview

BNP Paribas released an investment report on 7 October 2013, covering key stock recommendations and sector insights for India, Malaysia, and other Asian markets. The report includes upgrades, initiations, and holds on several companies, along with macroeconomic and sectoral analysis.

Key Recommendations

India

Infosys (INFY US): Upgraded from Hold to BUY
- Target Price: INR3,550.00
- Current Price: INR3,037.15
- Upside: +16.9%
- Key Reason: Expected recovery in demand and cost initiatives, with improved core markets and margin stabilization.
- Valuation: 2014E P/E 15.7x, P/B 3.8x, Yield 2.0%

Malaysia

Mah Sing Group Bhd (MSGB MK): Initiated with BUY
- Target Price: MYR3.03
- Current Price: MYR2.34
- Upside: +29.3%
- Key Reason: High asset turn, leading to strong ROE (20%), and reasonable net gearing.
- Valuation: 2013E P/E 10.4x, P/B 1.9x, Yield 3.9%
SP Setia Bhd (SPSB MK): Initiated with HOLD
- Target Price: MYR3.53
- Current Price: MYR3.21
- Upside: +10.0%
- Key Reason: Management overhang and uncertainty about future strategy.
- Valuation: 2013E P/E 16.4x, P/B 1.4x, Yield 3.5%
UEM Sunrise Bhd (UEMS MK): Initiated with BUY
- Target Price: MYR3.25
- Current Price: MYR2.56
- Upside: +27.1%
- Key Reason: Strong land bank in Iskandar, a special economic zone in Malaysia.
- Valuation: 2014E P/E 20.6x, P/B 1.9x, Yield 1.2%

Sector Research

Malaysia Property Sector

Core Insight: The mass-market segment is structurally supported by a young population and tight supply.
Key Points:
- High-end segment risks are overshadowing the strong fundamentals of the mass-to-mid market.
- Total home supply grew only 2.8% annually from 2008-12, while the number of marriages (a key first-time buyer pool) increased by 200k annually.
- Expected home price growth to fall to 1-3% pa from 2013-14, compared to 10% in 2008-12.
- Policy shifts toward austerity may impact the sector, but infrastructure spending is expected to continue.
- Valuation is attractive, with Malaysian property stocks trading at 35-40% discounts to RNAV.
- Top Picks: Mah Sing (BUY), UEM Sunrise (BUY), and CapitaLand (BUY) for their exposure to Iskandar and cross-segment developments.

Japan Banks

SMFG: Raised 1H FY3/14 projection, with a positive outlook.

Asia-Pacific Events

Company Roadshows: Scheduled for various locations including Singapore, Europe, and others.
- Industry Expert Roadshow: Singapore, 10-11, 25 Oct 13
- Makalot (1477 TT): EU, 28 Oct -1 Nov 13
- Chunghwa Telecom (2412 TT): EU, 4-8 Nov 13
- Shinsei Bank (8303 JP): EU, 13-15 Nov 13
- Lion Air: EU, 15, 18-19 Nov 13
- SMIC (981 HK): EU, 25-29 Nov
- Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (ASE 2311 TT): Week of 2 Dec

Key Investment Views

Infosys: Expected to recover with demand and cost initiatives, with a revised target price of INR3,550.00.
Mah Sing: Strong asset turn and ROE, with a target price at 15% discount to RNAV.
UEM Sunrise: Best liquid proxy to Iskandar with a large land bank, expected to benefit from growth in the special economic zone.
SP Setia: Concerns over management succession and uncertainty, leading to a HOLD rating.
Malaysia Property Sector: Initiating a positive view, as stocks are undervalued and the sector has structural support.

Valuation Highlights

Company	2013E P/E	2014E P/E	2015E P/E	2016E P/E	P/B	Discount to RNAV
Infosys	18.4	15.7	13.6	12.8	4.4	-
Mah Sing Group	10.4	8.6	7.5	-	1.9	34.3%
SP Setia	16.4	14.1	11.2	-	1.4	40.9%
UEM Sunrise	20.6	19.9	18.1	-	1.9	37.1%

Key Risks

Infosys: Bloating cost structure, margin recovery.
SP Setia: Management overhang and uncertainty.
Iskandar: Oversupply, policy reversal, and bi-lateral ties between Malaysia and Singapore.
Malaysia Property: Further policy curbs and slower government infrastructure spending.