20170612-财达证券-晨会纪要_33页_265kb

晨会纪要 2017-06-12 总结

核心内容

• 市场回顾：

  • 上周市场呈现“二八行情”，沪指早盘创新高后受制于半年线大幅回落，但最终小幅收涨，实现四连阳。
  • 创业板指数表现较弱，早盘低开后震荡下行，尾盘受沪指带动翻红。
  • 截至收盘，沪指上涨0.26%，报3158.4点；深成指上涨0.28%，报10177.5点；创业板指上涨0.08%，报1796.13点。
  • 两市合计成交4053亿元，显示市场活跃度有所回升。

• 板块表现：

  • 智能机器、智慧交通、人脸识别、铁路基建、雄安、上海国企等板块涨幅居前。
  • 次新股、兜底增持、黑色金属、海工装备等板块表现较弱。

• 后市展望：

  • 短线来看，上证指数在突破5月份高点后，技术上存在整理需求，但反弹趋势未变。
  • 建议控制仓位，关注绩优股和中报业绩预增股，适度参与雄安板块及相关京津冀、基建、环保、能源和MSCI预期带来的机会。
  • 避免高估值个股、ST股和绩差板块。

• 策略点评：

  • 5月份进出口贸易数据回升，显示国外需求增加。
  • 5月CPI小幅回升，PPI继续回落，市场已接受PPI年内拐点出现的预期。
  • 预计本周将公布新增人民币贷款、社融、工业增加值等数据，这些数据可能进一步验证经济复苏预期已被证伪。
  • 本周经济数据可能显示经济下行预期加大，对A股市场带来压力。
  • 本周市场反弹窗口开启，但反弹高度和时间需降低预期，保持谨慎。

• 今日要闻：

  • 多城市房地产开发投资5年翻番，北深位列前三。
  • 证监会核准8家公司IPO，筹资总额不超过25亿元。
  • 四国央行将公布利率决议。
  • 最大央企重组规模超1.8万亿，“中国神电”成为煤电巨头。
  • 恒大巨亏70亿元清空万科股。

关键信息

市场动态

• 上证指数：上周上涨1.7%，收回5月份全部跌幅，逼近半年线3170点。
• 深成指：上周上涨3.91%，表现优于上证指数。
• 上证50：延续强势，周涨幅0.49%，刷新一年半新高。
• 中小板与创业板：反弹力度较大，周涨幅分别为4.02%和3.74%。

经济数据预期

• PPI：预计继续回落，市场对于PPI数据的边际效应递减。
• 新增人民币贷款、社融、工业增加值：预计将出现稳步回落，进一步验证经济复苏预期已被证伪。
• 经济下行预期：可能加大A股市场运行压力。

市场策略

• 反弹窗口：市场出现反弹，但反弹高度和时间需降低预期。
• 关注绩优股和中报业绩预增股：作为短期策略重点。
• 适度参与主题投资机会：如雄安板块及相关京津冀、基建、环保、能源和MSCI预期。
• 回避高估值个股、ST股和绩差板块：以降低风险。

市场不确定性

• 美联储加息预期：本周三将召开6月份议息会议，市场普遍预期将宣布加息。
• 海外市场扰动：加息靴子落地后，海外市场不确定性有望缓和。

今日上市

• 美格智能：2017-06-12（网上中签率公布日）
• 广州酒家：2017-06-12（初步询价终止日期）
• 迪生力：2017-06-12（网上中签率公布日）
• 易德龙：2017-06-12（网上申购日）
• 华体科技：2017-06-12（网上中签率公布日）
• 三孚股份：2017-06-12（初步询价起始日期）

特殊停牌

• PT金田A：因重大事项公告，公司A、B股票将于12月12日开市起停牌。
• 国农科技：因重大事项停牌，自2017年4月5日开市起停牌。
• 全新好：因重大事项停牌，自2017年1月16日开市起停牌。
• PT中浩A：因不确定性事项停牌，自2015年3月6日开始停牌。
• 深华发A：因重大事项停牌，自2017年5月31日开市起停牌。
• 深深房A：因重大事项停牌，自2016年9月14日开市起停牌。
• 深桑达A：因筹划重大事项停牌，自2017年2月27日开市起停牌。
• 神州数码：因预计有重大事项发生停牌，自2017年3月21日开市起停牌。
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