世界银行-贸易一体化：发展的路径？（英文）-2019.10-70页_5mb

报告摘要

Summary of "Trade Integration as a Pathway to Development?"

Core Content

This report by the World Bank, published in October 2019, analyzes the role of trade integration in the economic development of the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region. It explores the region's recent economic performance, the impact of trade agreements, and the potential for trade integration to drive growth and development.

Main Points

Economic Performance

The LAC region has experienced sluggish economic growth after a period of rapid expansion driven by high commodity prices.
GDP growth in 2018 was only 0.2%, far below the 1.8% forecast from April 2018, indicating a significant slowdown.
The largest economies in the region, such as Argentina, Brazil, and Venezuela, have faced recession, macroeconomic turbulence, or growth deceleration.
Unemployment rates have increased in several countries, reflecting worsening employment prospects.

External Conditions

Commodity prices have stabilized after a long decline, but this has not translated into improved export performance.
The terms of trade have generally improved, especially for copper and soybean producers, but exports remain stagnant or declining in Argentina and Brazil.
Real exchange rate depreciation has increased competitiveness in some countries, but this has not been enough to offset the lack of export growth.
Current account deficits are still common but remain within manageable limits.

Domestic Financial Conditions

The external financial environment has become more favorable, with lower interest rates and stabilizing capital inflows.
However, domestic financial markets have shown diverse performances, with some countries like Jamaica and Argentina experiencing significant volatility.
Country risk is well differentiated by international markets, with Argentina and Costa Rica facing particularly high risks.

Economic Policy Stance

Monetary policy in the region is generally steady, with most countries maintaining inflation targeting regimes.
Argentina deviated from this norm in 2018 by shifting to monetary base targeting, which led to a spike in interest rates.
Fiscal policy remains expansionary in most countries, with only two out of 26 running a surplus.
Primary deficits are widespread, indicating a growing debt burden in several countries, including Venezuela, which is unsustainable.
Public debt levels are generally high, especially in Argentina and Brazil, with foreign currency-denominated debt increasing vulnerability to currency depreciation.

Key Trade Agreements

South-North Agreements

The USMCA and EU-Mercosur agreements are milestone trade deals signed in the last 12 months.
These agreements are expected to increase economic complexity in the region, which should have a positive impact on GDP in the medium term.
They are not expected to cause major structural transformation, with only modest changes in output and employment across sectors.
Mexico is expected to see skill-intensive manufacturing expansion, while Mercosur countries will benefit from soy and livestock production.

South-South Agreements

South-South trade agreements have limited growth impacts, while South-North agreements are associated with greater economic complexity.
Intra-regional trade agreements have been more common historically, but recent trends show a shift toward South-North agreements, especially in the Caribbean and Pacific subregions.

Impacts of Trade Integration

Economic complexity is a better indicator of growth than structural transformation.
Workers should benefit from trade agreements, especially skilled workers in Mexico and unskilled workers in Mercosur.
Spatial concentration of economic activity may lead to uneven distribution of gains, with some municipalities, departments, and districts benefiting more than others.
Environmental concerns are highlighted, particularly the potential increase in deforestation due to livestock expansion in Brazil.
Appropriate spatial and environmental policies are necessary to ensure that trade integration becomes a pathway to development.

Conclusion

Trade integration, particularly through South-North agreements, has the potential to boost economic complexity and GDP growth in the LAC region. However, structural transformation is expected to be modest, and adverse impacts such as carbon emissions and environmental degradation must be addressed through targeted policies. The report emphasizes the importance of domestic conditions and policy choices in shaping the region's economic trajectory, suggesting that while external factors play a role, the region's performance is largely self-inflicted.

Key Figures and Tables

Figure 1: Back to "normal": increasingly mediocre economic growth.
Figure 2: A sharp contrast with advanced economies and other emerging markets.
Figure 3: A much stronger deceleration in the Atlantic subregion than in the Caribbean or the Pacific.
Figure 4: The largest economies in the region are barely growing.
Figure 5: Unemployment rates have increased in several countries.
Figure 6: After a long decline, commodity prices have stabilized.
Figure 7: The terms of trade have generally improved.
Figure 8: Currency depreciations have increased competitiveness in some countries.
Figure 9: Exports are growing in Mexico but stagnant overall.
Figure 10: Current account deficits are generally manageable.
Figure 11: An easing policy stance in the US and stabilizing portfolio inflows to the region.
Figure 12: A wide diversity of stock market performances.
Figure 13: Markets clearly differentiate country risk.
Figure 14: A generally steady monetary policy stance, though not in Argentina.
Figure 15: A range of fiscal stances, from large deficits to primary surpluses.
Figure 16: High levels of gross public debt.
Figure 17: Relatively steady macroeconomic policy stances.
Figure 18: Who depends on China and who on G7 countries?
Figure 19: Potential growth deceleration in a global slowdown scenario.
Figure 20: Less open to trade than other developing regions.
Figure 21: A relatively restrictive trade regime.
Figure 22: Higher trade barriers among countries on the Atlantic.
Figure 23: Most trade agreements are within the region.
Figure 24: South-North trade agreements involve greater market size.
Figure 25: South-North agreements increase economic complexity.
Figure 26: Countries in the Caribbean and Pacific subregions have looked farther.
Figure 27: Trade integration may seem a risky choice.
Figure 28: Volatility falls with trade in more economically complex countries.
Figure 29: NAFTA increased Mexico's economic complexity.
Figure 30: Mercosur did not increase the economic complexity of its members.
Figure 31: Trade agreements lead to a substantial increase in trade volumes.
Figure 32: South-North trade agreements increase economic complexity in the South.
Figure 33: South-North trade agreements lead to faster economic growth.
Figure 34: Relatively modest structural transformation: USMCA.
Figure 35: Relatively modest structural transformation: EU-Mercosur agreement.
Figure 36: Growth is driven by greater economic complexity more than by structural transformation.
Figure 37: Changes in returns to land, capital and labor.
Figure 38: Larger CO₂ emissions mainly as a result of faster economic growth.

Key Maps

Map 1: Openness to trade is especially low among Atlantic countries.
Map 2: More preferential trade agreements than in other developing regions.
Map 3: An uneven spatial distribution of the gains.
Map 4: The spatial distribution of cattle heads in Brazil.

Key Tables

Table 1: Real GDP growth at market prices.

Rights and Permissions

The report is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license.
Translation and adaptation of the report must include appropriate disclaimers.
Third-party content is not guaranteed to be free of infringement, and users are responsible for obtaining permissions if needed.

Acknowledgements

The report is a joint product of the Chief Economist office and the Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice at the World Bank.
It was led by Guillermo Javier Vuletin and guided by Martin Rama.
Substantive contributions were made by Elena Ianchovichina and Daniel Riera-Crichton.
Technical inputs were provided by several consultants and analysts.
Administrative support was provided by various staff members.

Conclusion

While trade integration has not led to major structural changes in the LAC region, it is associated with increased economic complexity and positive growth effects. The report underscores the need for appropriate policies to address spatial and environmental impacts in order for trade integration to serve as a true pathway to development.

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