2025-05-29-Bernstein-酩悦·轩尼诗-路易·威登集团（MC）_LVMH_-随着玛丽亚·格拉齐亚·基乌里（Maria_Grazia_Chiuri）宣布离职_管理层在重振迪奥方面进展顺利_10页_401kb

Summary of LVMH Analysis

Investment Recommendation:

• LVMH (Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE) is recommended to "Outperform" with a target price of 600 EUR, up from the current close of 483.65 EUR, representing a 24% upside potential.

Key Factors Driving Recommendation:

• Expected leadership change at Dior with Maria Grazia Chiuri's departure, which provides an opportunity to revitalize the brand.
• Ongoing efforts by LVMH management to address performance issues across divisions, including Fashion and Leather Goods, Wines & Spirits, Watches & Jewelry, and Select Distribution.
• Positive outlook for LVMH in the second half of 2025 if challenges in Dior and other divisions are resolved.

Performance Overview:

• Current closing price: 483.65 EUR.
• Six-month performance: -17.0%.
• Year-to-date performance: -32.1%.
• Analysts' views have improved, with a constructive stance on LVMH for the second half of 2025, considering the management's problem-solving approach.

Risks:

• Potential shift in consumer spending away from luxury goods toward experiences due to post-COVID normalization.
• Escalating geopolitical tensions could negatively impact consumer demand.
• Intense competition in the luxury sector, particularly in beauty retail, adding pressure on brands.

Valuation:

• Target price based on a relative P/E multiple of 1.75x, applied to a forward blended EPS forecast, leading to a 600 EUR target.
• Current adjusted BPA for 2024 is 26.07 EUR, with 2025 expectations of 24.17 EUR per share.

This summary is based on Bernstein Research analysts' analysis and excludes detailed disclosures.