2025-05-29-Bernstein-酩悦·轩尼诗-路易·威登集团（MC）_路威酩轩_管理层在MGC离职后有望重振迪奥_10页_399kb

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE Summary

Rating: Outperform
Price Target: €600.00

Core Event

• Maria Grazia Chiuri (Dior's Creative Director for womenswear) has stepped down, with a replacement yet to be named.

Background

• Speculation about Chiuri's departure has been present since late 2024.
• The departure may stem from a conflict between Chiuri’s plans and internal pressures within Dior.

Analysis Overviews

• Dior has contributed significantly to LVMH's performance issues, facing consumer 'value for money' concerns.
• A change in creative leadership is seen as an opportunity to revitalize Dior.
• LVMH management is expected to address Dior's performance issues effectively.

Investment Outlook

• Management's proactive approach to resolving challenges (Dior, W&S, W&J) is viewed positively.
• Despite challenges, the stock is rated Outperform, with a new €600 target based on a favorable relative P/E valuation.
• The turnaround at Dior is emphasized as the most critical issue.

Concerns & Risks

• Other brands and divisions require attention, contributing to the stock's classification at the 'border of high quality and self-help'.
• Short-term performance expectations are modest (1H25E).

Comparative Analysis

• LVMH is rated Outperform with an adjusted EPS forecast of EUR26.20 for 2026E.
• LVMH is rated below Hermès and Richemont but offers buying opportunities compared to these competitors.

Risks Highlighted

• Normalization post-COVID may shift spending away from luxury goods.
• Escalating geopolitical tensions could negatively impact demand.
• Intense competition and pressure on makeup, particularly in Sephora channels, pose challenges.