2025全球能源与气候模型研究报告_143页_7mb

Global Energy and Climate Model Summary

Core Content

The Global Energy and Climate (GEC) Model is a comprehensive, integrated tool developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to generate detailed long-term energy scenarios. It combines the strengths of the World Energy Model (WEM) and Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) models, offering a bottom-up simulation framework with elements of optimisation to assess energy markets, technology trends, policy strategies, and investment requirements across all energy sectors and regions.

The GEC Model covers 29 regions and is used to produce sector-by-sector and region-by-region projections. It includes modules for final energy demand, energy transformation, and energy supply, with a focus on:

• Energy services (industry, transport, buildings, agriculture)
• Energy transformation (electricity generation, heat production, refining, hydrogen, biofuels, etc.)
• Energy supply (fossil fuels, renewables, critical minerals)
• Environmental impacts (CO₂, methane, other greenhouse gases, air pollution, temperature outcomes)
• Investments (fuel supply, power sector, demand-side)
• Energy access (electricity and clean cooking)
• Employment (sector-specific job creation and skills)
• Affordability (household energy expenditures)

The model uses data-intensive inputs, including energy and economic statistics from the IEA’s own databases, as well as external sources and collaborations. It is designed to analyse the future of global energy under various assumptions and policy contexts, enabling a comparison of different possible futures and the factors that influence them.

Main Scenarios

The GEC Model supports several key scenarios:

• Current Policies Scenario (CPS): Assumes no new energy policies beyond those already in place. It reflects a cautious outlook on technology deployment and policy implementation, with a focus on existing legislation and regulations.
• Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS): Builds on a broader interpretation of current policies, including those that are formally announced but not yet implemented. It allows for a more dynamic projection of energy technologies and market trends.
• Accelerating Clean Cooking and Electricity Services Scenario (ACCESS): A new scenario introduced in WEO-2025, aiming to achieve universal electricity access by 2035 and clean cooking access by 2040. It is grounded in practical constraints and cost-effective solutions.
• Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE): Aiming for net zero CO₂ emissions by 2050, this scenario includes CO₂ removal technologies and reflects a pragmatic but ambitious path to align with the 1.5°C temperature goal.
• Announced Pledges Scenario (APS): Not included in WEO-2025 due to incomplete data on updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). It assumes all national targets are fully implemented and explores the implications for global energy demand and emissions.

Key Inputs and Assumptions

• Population and economic growth: Assumptions are based on historical trends and future projections.
• Prices: Includes fossil fuel prices, CO₂ prices, and capital costs for various technologies.
• Policies: Fully integrated into the model, with policy assumptions available in Section 2.
• Techno-economic inputs: Reflect current and projected costs of technologies and fuels.
• Energy access: Assessed through the ACCESS scenario, which includes geospatial analysis and investment models for solar home systems.
• Critical minerals: Modelled with a focus on demand, supply, prices, and byproduct dependence.

Sector-Specific Developments

Industry

• Cement demand and supplementary cementitious materials are updated, with a focus on China’s outlook.
• Industrial heat pumps and thermal energy storage are modelled with enhanced representation of low-temperature heat demand.
• Capacity retirement is assessed with annual capacity additions for energy-intensive industries.

Transport

• Road passenger vehicles now include ownership patterns and Gompertz curves for future trends.
• Road freight is enhanced with diesel price and GDP data.
• Extended Range Electric Vehicles (EREVs) are modelled based on cost evolution.
• Rail efficiency is updated with type-specific benchmarks.
• Aviation includes a new model for freighter planes and sustainable aviation fuel.
• Maritime includes enhanced energy efficiency assumptions for the existing fleet.

Buildings

• Cooling model is upgraded with new technology granularity, revised cooled floorspace calculation, and updated AC ownership.
• Building envelope is modelled with new data on efficiency and building types.
• Lighting is enhanced with historical consumption estimates and updated efficacy.
• A new water desalination model is developed, tracking historical capacity, sector trends, and country-level technologies.
• A data centre model is introduced, using IT equipment shipments as a key driver for electricity demand.

Electricity Generation

• Hourly electricity dispatch model now includes reserve modelling.
• Wind and solar PV production profiles are estimated using technical characteristics and projected locations.

Energy Supply

• Methane emissions from biogas supply and abandoned mines/wells are updated.
• Oil and gas decline rates are revised based on conventional and unconventional field production.

Critical Minerals

• Modelled with a broader scope, including strategic minerals, supply ownership, refining, and battery recycling.

Employment

• Energy employment is now disaggregated into nine occupational groups, aligned with ISCO-08 classification.

Key Insights

• The GEC Model provides detailed, scenario-based projections for the global energy system.
• It integrates cross-cutting factors such as policies, prices, and economic growth.
• The ACCESS scenario is a novel approach to energy access, focusing on universal electricity and clean cooking.
• The NZE scenario highlights the need for CO₂ removal technologies to meet the 1.5°C target.
• The model is data-intensive and collaborative, drawing from IEA databases and external sources.
• Policy decisions are a key driver of different outcomes, with technological and economic factors also playing a significant role.

Conclusion

The GEC Model is a key analytical tool for the IEA, providing insights into future energy trends, policy impacts, and investment requirements. It supports a wide range of scenarios, including the CPS, STEPS, ACCESS, and NZE, and is continuously updated with new data and methodologies to reflect the latest developments in the energy sector. The model's comprehensive coverage of all energy sectors and its integration of environmental and economic factors make it a valuable resource for policymakers and stakeholders in the global energy transition.