20250918-格林期货-早盘提示_2页_249kb

Urea Market Analysis Summary

Market Review

On Wednesday, urea主力合约2601价格下跌至1681元/吨。华中地区现货价格稳定于1660元/吨。多头持仓增加3,327手至20.35万手，空头持仓减少235手至24.32万手。

Key Information

• Supply: Urea industry daily production at 195,600 tons (up 3,500 tons from previous day),开工率 down to 83.59%.
• Inventory: China's total urea enterprise inventory 1,165,300 tons (up 32,600 tons, +2.88% weekly), port inventory decreased.
• Demand:复合肥开工率 at 37.8% (+4.7% weekly),三聚氰胺开工率 at 58.5% (+11.9% weekly).
• India Import Bid: Received bids for 565,985 tons (including 4.5万吨FOB), quotes below CF470 USD/ton, triggered interest.
• Global Context: Fed rate cut to 4.00%–4.25%, but not directly affecting urea prices.

Market Outlook

Urea price is expected to oscillate in a short-range due to increasing supply, slow industrial demand recovery, inventory build-up, and disappointing Indian import bids below expectations.

Trading Strategy

Recommend an oscillating trading approach within the price range of 1640–1740 yuan/ton.

*Disclaimer: This summary is based on public information and for reference only. Investors should not rely on it for trading decisions.