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Impact Appraisal for Sovereign Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance: Summary

Core Content

This document outlines a project aimed at improving the evaluation and evidence base for sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance (DRFI) programs. It is a collaborative initiative between the UK Department for International Development (DFID), the World Bank (WB), and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), which is expected to run from 2013 to 2016. The project focuses on developing a methodology for forward-looking impact appraisal of DRFI programs, using quantitative tools and country-specific case studies to better inform decision-making.

Main Objectives

The primary goal of the project is to:

• Create a conceptually sound and quantitative impact appraisal tool for sovereign DRFI programs.
• Evaluate five country-specific case studies to understand the effectiveness of DRFI in different contexts.
• Provide evidence-based insights to guide future investments in disaster risk financing by national governments and international donors.
• Promote innovative thinking and leadership in disaster risk management (DRM).

Key Challenges

• The increasing frequency and severity of climate-related disasters is pushing governments to find new ways to manage financial risks.
• Limited evidence exists on which DRFI strategies are most cost-effective in reducing the impact on development and disaster-affected individuals.
• Traditional backward-looking evaluations based on past disaster data may not reflect future risks accurately, as extreme events are rare and unpredictable.
• There is a need for robust, forward-looking models that can simulate various disaster scenarios and estimate their developmental consequences.

Main Views and Insights

• Forward-looking impact appraisal is essential to better understand the potential of DRFI programs in managing disaster risk.
• The project will use probabilistic disaster risk models to assess the likelihood of different events and their effects on development and poverty.
• It aims to quantify trade-offs among key dimensions of DRFI programs, such as cost, speed of response, and coverage.
• The developed framework should be robust to uncertainty in modeling and parameter estimation, yet still inform evidence-based decision making.
• The project will complement qualitative impact assessments by providing quantifiable results that are meaningful for policy and investment decisions.

Key Information

• The project is part of the WB-GFDRR DRFI Program and seeks to enhance the methodological consistency of DRFI evaluations.
• It is designed to help decision-makers determine when DRFI programs are effective components of a broader disaster risk management strategy.
• The project includes conceptual development, framework building, and application to five country case studies, beginning in 2014.
• It leverages the World Bank’s extensive network of partner organizations and DFID’s expertise in evaluation and learning.

Project Outputs

The project will produce:

• A methodologically robust conceptual framework for impact appraisal.
• Quantitative results from five country case studies.
• Headline figures on the impact of DRFI programs on development and poverty.
• Tools and insights that can support evidence-based investment decisions in DRFI.

Conclusion

This initiative represents a significant step towards improving the effectiveness and impact of sovereign DRFI programs. By adopting a forward-looking and quantitative approach, the project aims to provide better guidance for policy and investment decisions, ultimately helping to reduce the human and economic costs of disasters in low-income countries.