韩国央行-改变未来_人工智能对韩国的影响（英）-2025_25页_2mb

Summary of BOK Issue Note: "Transforming The Future: The Impact of Artificial Intelligence in Korea"

Core Content

This paper analyzes the economic and labor market impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Korea, highlighting both opportunities and challenges. Korea is positioned as a global leader in AI adoption, with a strong innovation and digital infrastructure that supports its readiness for AI integration. However, the paper also underscores the need for policy interventions to address potential adverse effects on vulnerable groups.

Main Points

AI Adoption in Korea

• Global Leadership: Korea is among the top countries in AI adoption, with 40% of IT professionals in large enterprises using AI, and an additional 48% actively exploring it.
• High Adoption Rate: Only 6% of Korean enterprises reported not using or exploring AI, significantly lower than the global average of 15%.
• Firm Characteristics: AI adoption is more common among larger, younger, and technologically advanced firms, particularly in the information and communication (ICT) and professional services sectors.
• Digital Infrastructure: Korean firms leverage a variety of digital technologies, including AI, big data, cloud, IoT, robots, and 3-D printing, with a strong focus on AI-related innovations.
• Empirical Evidence: Regression analysis confirms that firm size, age, and innovation are key drivers of AI adoption, even after controlling for other factors.

AI and the Labor Market

• Job Exposure: About 50% of jobs in Korea are exposed to AI, with 24% in high-complementarity roles and 27% in low-complementarity roles.
• Occupational Risks and Opportunities:
  • Professional occupations are likely to benefit from AI due to their high complementarity.
  • Clerical jobs are at higher risk of displacement.
• Demographic Impact:
  • Women, younger workers, and more educated individuals are more exposed to AI, but also more likely to benefit from its complementarity.
  • Older workers are more vulnerable to job displacement and have lower reemployment rates.
• Worker Reallocation:
  • College-educated workers tend to remain in similar occupation categories.
  • There is a notable mobility from low-complementarity to high-complementarity roles, especially among college-educated workers.
  • Female workers are more likely to transition into high-exposure, high-complementarity (HEHC) roles compared to males.

AI, Productivity, and Output

• Model-Based Estimates:
  • AI adoption can significantly boost total factor productivity (TFP) and output.
  • In Scenario 3, which considers both labor complementarity and overall productivity increase, AI is projected to lead to a 3.2% increase in TFP and a 12.6% increase in output.
  • The aging population is expected to reduce output by 16.5% from 2023 to 2050, but AI can offset this decline.
• Empirical Analysis:
  • AI usage is more prevalent in firms with higher productivity and profitability.
  • However, AI adoption does not uniformly enhance productivity across all firms.
  • Firm size and age are more strongly correlated with productivity gains.
  • AI has a positive effect on firm profitability, but its impact on productivity is less consistent.

Key Information

• AI Readiness: Korea's strong innovation and digital infrastructure position it well for AI integration.
• Challenges: AI may lead to job displacement, income inequality, and greater vulnerability for older and less skilled workers.
• Policy Recommendations: The paper suggests the need for enhancing labor market flexibility and strengthening social safety nets to support workers affected by AI-induced changes.
• Future Outlook: The economic impact of AI remains uncertain, similar to past general-purpose technologies, but its potential for growth and productivity is significant.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that while AI presents substantial opportunities for economic growth and productivity gains in Korea, it also poses risks, particularly for older and less skilled workers. To fully harness AI's potential, Korea must focus on improving labor market adaptability and ensuring that vulnerable groups are protected. The analysis also highlights the importance of policy interventions in shaping a balanced and inclusive AI transition.