2024-06-23-世界银行-安曼公交改善对福利和生产力的影响（英）_47页_7mb

The Welfare and Productivity Effects of Transit Improvements in Amman

Objective

This paper analyzes the long-run welfare and productivity effects of the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system expansion in Amman, Jordan, using a rich quantitative spatial model.

Methodology

The study employs a spatial computable general equilibrium model calibrated to microdata from Amman. The model incorporates neighborhood-level data on population, employment, floor space, and zoning restrictions, simulating residential and work location choices, employment decisions, and market clearing. Two BRT phases are simulated to assess transit improvements.

Key Findings

• Output and Welfare Effects: BRT Phase 1 increases output by 4.4-5% (up to 7.6% in some sectors) and welfare by up to 16% in central areas. Phase 2 further boosts output by 7.2-7.6% and welfare across more peripheral areas.
• Distributional Effects: BRT Phase 1 promotes densification in already dense urban centers, increasing employment density by up to 31% in some locations and decreasing it in less dense areas, potentially increasing spatial inequality. Phase 2 encourages poly-centric development, with additional densification in the south.
• Sectoral Benefits: Workers in the manufacturing sector benefit most from BRT, as they lived farthest from the city center. Sectoral output increases homogeneously, with little reallocation of workers.
• Zoning Impact: Zoning restrictions limit economic development in some central areas, reducing the potential gains from BRT investments. Revisions to zoning rules are needed to allow densification and capture land value increases, especially in response to BRT-induced demand.

Conclusion

The BRT expansion enhances overall productivity and welfare in Amman but requires complementary policies, such as adjusting zoning regulations and urban regeneration, to maximize benefits and accommodate population and economic growth.