2025-05-29-Jefferies-阿斯顿·马丁拉共达（AML）_关税带来的轻微缓解_11页_330kb

Summary of Document: Mild Relief from Tariffs

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of Aston Martin Lagonda (AML), focusing on its financial performance, strategic developments, and valuation outlook. The key areas covered include:

• Recent Financial Performance: Q1 results showed a lower-than-expected gross margin due to a mix shift and lower Specials volume, but core ASP increased by 10% y/y. The company reported a reduced EBIT loss and improved FCF compared to previous estimates.
• Tariff Relief: The US-UK tariff agreement has led to a softening of earlier tariff-driven assumptions. A 10% tariff applies to up to 100k cars, with higher rates thereafter. The UK's lower tariff may provide a competitive advantage in the premium/luxury segment.
• Revised Estimates: Following the tariff agreement, estimates have been adjusted. Revenue is now forecasted to grow by +2.7% y/y, with adj EBIT moving to -£4m from -£28m, and FCF improved to -£156m from -£392m. The price target has been raised to 75p (from 70p).
• Valuation: The price target is based on a DCF model with a 15% discount rate and an exit multiple of 1.5x sales. AML currently trades at 1.3x 2025e EV/sales and 1.0x 2026e, which are lower than peers like P911 (1.3x 2026 sales).
• Capital Structure: Net debt remains at ~65% of enterprise value, but FCF is expected to improve, with a positive outlook in Q4 2025 and stabilization in 2026.

Main Points

• Q1 Performance:
  • Revenue declined by -12.6% y/y due to lower Specials volume.
  • Gross margin was 27.9%, below consensus expectations of 36.5%.
  • Adjusted EBIT was ~£7m worse y/y at -£64.5m.
  • FCF improved by £70m y/y at -£120m, partly due to timing of interest payments and customer deposits.
• Tariff Impact:
  • Initial tariff impact was mitigated, leading to a revised price target.
  • A 10% tariff applies to up to 100k cars, with higher rates thereafter.
  • The UK's lower tariff may provide a relative advantage over competitors subject to 25% tariffs.
• Strategic Focus:
  • AML is focusing on front-engine cars and improving ASP through new models like Vanquish and Valhalla.
  • Management expects ASP to continue growing, especially in H2.
  • Retail sales outperformed wholesale by ~50%, with the company expecting this trend to continue in Q2.
• Order Book:
  • Management aims to achieve a 6+ month order book for all models, moving from a 5-month average.
• Estimate Changes:
  • Revenue estimate increased by 2pp to +2.7% y/y.
  • Adj EBIT improved to -£4m from -£28m.
  • FCF improved to -£156m from -£392m.
• Valuation:
  • Price target increased to 75p (from 70p).
  • DCF-based target reflects a 1.5x sales exit multiple with 15% discount rate.
  • AML trades at 1.3x 2025e EV/sales and 1.0x 2026e, which are below the P911 valuation of 1.3x 2026 sales.

Key Information

• Company Overview:
  • AML is a British luxury car manufacturer, founded in 1913.
  • In 2024, AML sold ~6,030 cars, including ~218 special editions, for revenue of £1,584m.
  • The company is owned by a consortium including Saudi PIF (~15%), Geely (~15%), and Lawrence Stroll (~33% via Yew Tree).
• Financial Projections:
  • 2025e: Revenue £1,627.4m, EBIT -£4.2m, FCF -£156.4m.
  • 2026e: Revenue £1,979.5m, EBIT £108.5m, FCF £53.2m.
  • 2027e: Revenue £2,192.2m, EBIT £186.0m, FCF £132.1m.
• Valuation and Risk:
  • The price target is based on DCF and exit multiples.
  • Risks include costs of electrification, China policy, HNWIs trends, product execution, and industry competition.
  • AML is still below the 40% gross margin threshold and EBITDA < Capex.
• Analyst Coverage:
  • The report is authored by Philippe Houchois, Owen Paterson, Michael Aspinall, and Kiara Asinobi from Jefferies.
  • Analysts are not registered with FINRA, and their compensation may be tied to firm performance.
  • The report is not intended as an investment recommendation but as a single factor in investment decisions.

Investment Thesis and Scenarios

Base Case (75p, -4%)

• AML is expected to improve its FCF in Q4 2025 and stabilize capital structure.
• The company is on a path to positive adj EBIT in 2025, with a target of >40% gross margin.
• AML's product turnaround includes new front-engine models and mid-engine Specials like Valhalla.

Upside Scenario (150p, +91%)

• Stronger growth, particularly in mid-engine models, could lead to higher ASP and volume.
• FCF improvements could accelerate debt refinancing, reducing interest costs by 300bps.
• Strategic partnerships with AMG and Lucid may reduce capital intensity.
• The 150p PT is based on a higher exit multiple of 2.0x revenue.

Downside Scenario (50p, -36%)

• Slower growth and lower FCF could delay capital structure improvements.
• The company may face challenges in the SUV segment and mid-engine capex overruns.
• Exit multiple is expected to be <1.0x revenue, leading to a lower valuation.

Company-Specific Disclosures

• Jefferies has a conflict of interest due to investment banking services with Ferrari Group PLC.
• The report is not intended as a specific investment recommendation and is subject to various regulations and policies.

Analyst Certification

• All analysts certify that their views reflect personal opinions and are not influenced by compensation.
• Non-US analysts may not be subject to FINRA rules, which could affect communication and trading restrictions.

Valuation Methodology

• Jefferies uses multiple methods to determine price targets, including DCF, EV/EBITDA, P/E, and P/FCF.
• The price target is based on a 15% discount rate and a 1.5x sales exit multiple.

Investment Recommendation

• The rating is Hold, with a price target of 75p.
• The expected total return for a Hold rating is between -10% and +15% over 12 months.
• AML's current valuation is seen as undervalued, but the turnaround is still in progress.

Sustainability Matters

• Life-cycle emissions: AML is exempt from CO2 targets but must eliminate vehicle emissions by 2035.
• Labour practices/governance: The company has experienced high turnover but has improved board structure.

Conclusion

AML has shown some improvement in financial performance and strategic direction, with a revised price target and better-than-expected FCF. However, the company still faces challenges in achieving a sustainable EBITDA and margin improvement. The valuation is based on DCF and exit multiples, and the report highlights both upside and downside scenarios. Analysts remain cautious, with a Hold rating, and emphasize the importance of product execution and industry trends in determining future performance.