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MLAR Statistics Summary: March 2014 Edition

Core Content Overview

This document provides detailed statistics on residential loans to individuals in the UK, covering both regulated and non-regulated loans. The data is divided into three main sections:

• New business volumes
• New business characteristics
• Arrears & Provisions: unsecuritised and securitised loans

The statistics are not seasonally adjusted and are presented for the years 2012 and 2013, with quarterly breakdowns.

Summary 1: New Business Volumes (Sub Table A)

Key Metrics

• Gross advances (in £ millions):

  • 2012 Q3: 39,595
  • 2012 Q4: 39,397
  • 2013 Q1: 33,981
  • 2013 Q2: 41,651
  • 2013 Q3: 49,539
  • 2013 Q4: 50,491

• Net advances (in £ millions):

  • 2012 Q3: 5,602
  • 2012 Q4: 4,208
  • 2013 Q1: 1,221
  • 2013 Q2: 5,124
  • 2013 Q3: 7,234

• New commitments (in £ millions):

  • 2012 Q3: 35,934
  • 2012 Q4: 36,885
  • 2013 Q1: 35,452
  • 2013 Q2: 47,509
  • 2013 Q3: 50,491

Notes

• Gross advances are the total amount of new loans issued.
• Net advances are gross advances minus repayments.
• New commitments reflect the total amount of new loan applications and approvals.

Summary 2: New Business Characteristics (Sub Table B)

Interest Rates

• Percentage of business at fixed rates:

  • 2012 Q3: 55.98%
  • 2012 Q4: 63.55%
  • 2013 Q1: 70.69%
  • 2013 Q2: 75.26%
  • 2013 Q3: 77.31%

• Weighted average interest rates:

  • Fixed rate loans: decreased from 4.33% in 2012 Q3 to 3.40% in 2013 Q3.
  • Variable rate loans: decreased from 3.32% in 2012 Q3 to 3.07% in 2013 Q3.
  • All loans: decreased from 3.89% in 2012 Q3 to 3.32% in 2013 Q3.

Purpose of Loan

• House purchase:
  • 2012 Q3: 66.24%
  • 2013 Q4: 67.61%
• Remortgage:
  • 2012 Q3: 27.19%
  • 2013 Q4: 26.54%
• Other:
  • 2012 Q3: 37.61%
  • 2013 Q4: 35.73%

First Time Buyers

• Percentage of new business:
  • 2012 Q3: 18.22%
  • 2013 Q4: 20.03%

Summary 3: Loan Book Position and Arrears (Sub Table C and D)

Loan Balances Outstanding

• Unsecuritised loans (in £ millions):
  • 2012 Q3: 1,102,516
  • 2013 Q4: 1,122,708
• Securitised loans (in £ millions):
  • 2012 Q3: 124,803
  • 2013 Q4: 111,112
• Overall residential loans to individuals (in £ millions):
  • 2012 Q3: 1,227,319
  • 2013 Q4: 1,233,820

Arrears Cases

• Number of loan accounts in arrears:
  • 2012 Q3: 303,163
  • 2013 Q4: 279,649
• Balances outstanding in arrears (in £ millions):
  • 2012 Q3: 30,140
  • 2013 Q4: 27,138
• Percentage of total loan balances:
  • 2012 Q3: 2.46%
  • 2013 Q4: 2.20%

Arrears by Severity

• 1.5% < 2.5% in arrears:
  • 2012 Q3: 0.76%
  • 2013 Q4: 0.68%
• 2.5% < 5% in arrears:
  • 2012 Q3: 0.80%
  • 2013 Q4: 0.73%
• 5% < 7.5% in arrears:
  • 2012 Q3: 0.32%
  • 2013 Q4: 0.29%
• 7.5% < 10% in arrears:
  • 2012 Q3: 0.15%
  • 2013 Q4: 0.14%
• Over 10% in arrears:
  • 2012 Q3: 0.24%
  • 2013 Q4: 0.23%

First Time Buyers in Arrears

• Percentage of arrears cases:
  • 2012 Q3: 0.18%
  • 2013 Q4: 0.13%

Possession Cases

• Number of possession cases:
  • 2012 Q3: 14,889
  • 2013 Q4: 11,326
• New possessions in Qtr:
  • 2012 Q3: 8,521
  • 2013 Q4: 7,349
• Possessions sold in Qtr:
  • 2012 Q3: 8,687
  • 2013 Q4: 7,973
• Stock of possessions at end Qtr:
  • 2012 Q3: 14,889
  • 2013 Q4: 11,326

Key Information and Notes

• Loan accounts in the statistics include both 1st charge and 2nd/ subsequent charge loans, and some further advance loans.
• Arrears are calculated based on loan accounts where arrears amount to 1.5% or more of loan balances, which is a lower threshold than the CML's 2.5%, leading to higher arrears figures.
• Possession cases are based on individual loan accounts, not borrowers, and are influenced by the same reporting basis as arrears.
• The CML publishes data on mortgages, but the MLAR statistics include a broader range of loans and reporting methods, resulting in materially higher numbers.

Main Points

• New business volumes show a general upward trend in 2013, with gross advances increasing from 39,595 in 2012 Q3 to 50,491 in 2013 Q4.
• Interest rates have been declining over time, with fixed rates increasing in percentage but average rates decreasing.
• House purchase remains the largest purpose of new loans, accounting for over 60% of gross advances in most quarters.
• First time buyers have shown a steady increase in their share of new business.
• Arrears and possessions have been declining over the period, but remain a significant portion of the loan book.
• The reporting basis for MLAR differs from CML, leading to higher figures for loan accounts, arrears, and possession cases.

Conclusion

The March 2014 MLAR statistics provide a comprehensive view of the UK residential loan market, highlighting trends in new business, interest rates, loan purposes, and arrears. The data reflects a declining interest rate environment, with a shift towards fixed-rate loans and a steady share of first-time buyers. While arrears and possession cases have been decreasing, they still represent a substantial portion of the loan book, indicating ongoing risks in the sector. The reporting methodology is distinct from that of CML, which affects the comparability of figures.