2021-05-31-兰德-从责任分担的角度看法国的国防能力（英文）_107页_1mb

Summary of "A Strong Ally Stretched Thin"

This report by the RAND Corporation analyzes France's defense capabilities, focusing on its potential role in high-intensity conventional conflicts and coalition operations. France's military is one of Western Europe's most capable, driven by principles of nuclear deterrence, strategic autonomy, and full-spectrum military intervention. The country has increased defense spending, modernizing key capabilities while maintaining expeditionary operations in regions like Africa. However, challenges in readiness, equipment, and resource allocation limit its ability to sustain prolonged high-intensity conflicts. The report emphasizes areas where U.S.-French collaboration could enhance mutual defense capabilities.

Key Findings

• France's Defense Strategy:

  • Prioritizes nuclear deterrence, with capabilities modernizing due to increased budget (e.g., 2% of GDP goal).
  • Emphasizes full-spectrum force capabilities, from high-end conventional warfare to expeditionary operations.
  • Views Russia's conventional threat as limited but addresses hybrid and expeditionary risks elsewhere, such as Africa and the Levant.
  • Strong political and public support for military interventions, but operational constraints from ongoing commitments (e.g., Sahel and homeland security) may limit flexibility.

• Army Capabilities:

  • Maintains a balanced, volunteer-based force focused on the "middle segment" of conflict (heavy yet expeditionary).
  • Modernization includes programs like SCORPION (networked warfare) and new vehicles (e.g., Griffon, Jaguar).
  • Readiness issues persist due to budget cuts, limited ammunition, and staff reductions, though recent investments are improving training and readiness.

• Air Force Capabilities:

  • Modernization includes the Rafale, FCAS, and hypersonic weapons.
  • Readiness challenges, especially with aircraft and helicopters, are hampered by maintenance issues, limited spare parts, and operational demands.
  • SEAD capabilities and munitions are significant constraints.

• Navy Capabilities:

  • Focuses on nuclear deterrence and power projection with assets like aircraft carriers and FREMM frigates.
  • Fleet size reduced post-Cold War; readiness issues include aging ships and limited heavy-lift capacity.
  • Emphasis on maintaining sea lines of communication and countering A2/AD threats.

• Space, Cyber, and Intelligence:

  • Significant investments planned for space and cyber, including offensive/defensive capabilities and improved ISR.
  • Cyber threats are a growing concern, with recent high-profile attacks highlighting vulnerabilities.

• Strengths and Limitations:

  • Strengths: Nuclear deterrence, expeditionary readiness, interoperability with allies, and willingness to engage in burdensharing.
  • Limitations: Lack of depth, material shortages (e.g., munitions, vehicles), readiness gaps, and operational strain from concurrent missions like Operation Barkhane.

• Conclusions and Recommendations (RAND):

  • France could support a U.S.-led conflict in Eastern Europe for a limited timeframe but cannot sustain high-intensity operations long-term without external support.
  • Opportunities for U.S.-French collaboration exist in areas like electronic warfare, SEAD, and networked systems to address French capability gaps.
  • Policy recommendations include enhancing interoperability and ensuring joint development programs preserve industrial interests.