2025-06-12-Jefferies-阿尔帕加塔斯（ALPA4）_北美地区的一项变革性协议_12页_459kb

Alpargatas Equity Research Summary

Company Update

• Strategic Agreement: Alpargatas announced an exclusive distribution agreement with Eastman Group for Havaianas in North America (NA), transitioning from direct to distributor-operated model. This moves NA operations to a leaner structure, reducing fixed costs while leveraging scale for international growth.
• Key NA Impact: NA revenues contributed ~4% of group EBITDA in 2024; the partnership aims to reduce restructuring costs, support breaking even by 2026, and improve international margins.

Havaianas Turnaround

• Performance: Havaianas has achieved strong brand recognition in Brazil and international markets (100% Brazil/B ~50% Europe). Turnaround driven by product innovation, export focus, and a shift from direct to partnership model.
• Financials: Group EBITDA reached R$565m in 2024 (up from R$333m 2023) with improved margins due to restructuring and temporary balance sheet strengthening.

Rothy's Acquisition

• Progress: ALPA owns 49.9% stake in Rothy's, a leading US footwear brand valued at ~$1bn (unit economics stable at 62% gross margin post-acquisition). ALPA may acquire remaining shares in 2025 supporting its monetization plan.

Financial Projections

• Valuation: PT targets R$14.00 (ALPA4; +55%/+59%) for 2025/2026 based on EV/EBITDA (6.5x 2026E).
• Outlook: International market recovery in EBITDA (target ~R$877m 2026E) hinges on growing shares, improving capacity utilization, and successful NA restructuring (vs -R$99m loss 2024).

Risks

• Poor NA execution, slower international margins, operational inefficiencies or underperformance relative to targets.

Key Strategics

1. Simplification of product portfolio and operations under new management.
2. Focus on brand building through partnerships, reshoring R&D, and R&M.
3. Leverage NA distribution expansion via Eastman Group for scaling mid-tier channels.
4. Harvest Rothy's value by early monetization.