2021-08-12-牛津经济研究院-MENA_Saudi_Q2_GDP_and_budget_deficit,_Egypt_inflation_4页_261kb

报告摘要

Weekly Economic Briefing Summary | MENA

Core Content

This weekly economic briefing provides an overview of recent economic developments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, focusing on Saudi Arabia and Egypt. It includes GDP growth, budget deficit, inflation, and future forecasts for various countries.

Key Economic Indicators

Saudi Arabia

Q2 GDP Growth: Increased by 1.5% y/y, marking the first growth after five consecutive quarters of decline since the pandemic.
Non-oil Sector Growth: Grew by 10.1% y/y (1.3% q/q), driven by easing of restrictions and increased economic activity.
Oil Sector Performance: Contracted by 7.0% y/y (2.5% q/q growth), due to production increases and higher oil prices.
Budget Deficit: Narrowed to 0.6% of GDP in Q2, compared to 11.2% of GDP in Q2 2021.
- Oil Revenues: Rose by 38% y/y.
- Non-oil Revenues: Tripled to SAR116bn, attributed to the tripling of VAT in July 2020.
Forecast: Expect the budget deficit to narrow to 0.9% of GDP for the year, but risks remain due to oil market volatility and potential new restrictions.

Egypt

July Inflation: Accelerated to 5.4% y/y, the highest in seven months, driven by increases in electricity, tobacco, and food prices.
Food Price Inflation: Rose to 4.9% y/y from 3.4% y/y, expected to continue due to the reduction of bread subsidies.
Housing and Utility Inflation: Increased to 3.9% y/y from 3.6% y/y.
Inflation Target Range: Remains within the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) target of 5–9% y/y.
Forecast: Inflation is expected to remain stable, with interest rates likely to stay at 8.25% as rate-cutting is expected to end.

Key Forecasts (2020–2022)

Country	Real GDP (%y/y)	Inflation (%y/y)	Current Account (%GDP)	Fiscal Balance (%GDP)
World	-3.5	2.8	-	-
MENA*	-4.7	19.0	-	-
GCC	-5.1	1.4	-0.3	-9.4
Saudi Arabia	-4.1	3.4	-2.8	-11.2
UAE	-6.1	-2.1	5.9	-0.2
Egypt	1.5	5.0	-3.7	-7.9
Iran	1.4	32.1	-0.6	-7.8
Iraq	-10.3	0.6	-9.1	-5.9
Israel	-2.3	-0.6	5.0	-11.6
Lebanon	-20.3	84.9	-4.9	-4.8
Jordan	-1.6	0.3	-8.0	-7.0
Oman	-5.8	-0.9	-15.7	-16.7
Qatar	-3.6	-2.6	-2.5	-2.1
Kuwait	-8.9	2.1	12.3	-28.8
Algeria	-7.0	2.1	-13.2	-9.2
Libya	-60.3	22.3	-39.9	-49.4
Tunisia	-8.6	5.6	-6.8	-9.8
Morocco	-7.1	0.6	-1.4	-7.7

Includes GCC + Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Syria, Sudan, Algeria, Lebanon, Gaza Strip, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia & Yemen

Future Outlook

Inflation Data: Reports for the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait are expected to be released soon.
OPEC+ Agreement: Expected to boost oil sector growth in the second half of the year.
Economic Risks: Potential re-introduction of Covid-19 restrictions and oil market volatility could impact growth forecasts.

Recent Publications

Lebanon: Economic forecast published on 04 August 2021.
Kuwait: Forecast published on 30 July 2021.
Israel: Forecast published on 29 July 2021.
UAE: Forecast published on 27 July 2021.
Egypt: Forecast published on 21 July 2021.

Contacts

ME/GCC: Maya Senussi (+44 (0) 2039108121 | msenussi@oxfordecomnomics.com)
Kuwait, Bahrain: Aoife Kealey (+971 55 203 5600 | akealey@oxfordeconomics.com)
Jordan, Iraq, Iran: Ahmed Esam (+971 50 431 7381 | aesam@oxfordeconomics.com)
Saudi Arabia: Amy McAlister (+971 56 396 7998 | amcalister@oxfordeconomics.com)
Egypt: Callee Davis (+27(0) 715 134 643 | calede@nkc.co.za)