2021-08-16-奥纬咨询-The_American_Rescue_Plan_Act_7页_185kb

IMPACT OF EXTENDING ARPA PREMIUM TAX CREDITS BEYOND 2022

Introduction and Background:
The American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) has significantly increased affordability of ACA marketplace insurance by expanding and modifying premium tax credits (APTCs). ARPA provides subsidies up to 150% of the federal poverty level (FPL), reducing the applicable percentage of income for benchmark plans and eliminating the subsidy cutoff at 400% FPL. This has made coverage more accessible for millions.

Key Changes Under ARPA:
ARPA offers free premiums up to 150% FPL, reduces the income share for lower-income households by widening the tax credit eligibility up to 800% FPL, and sets a uniform 8.5% applicable percentage above 400% FPL.

Modeling Results:
A microsimulation model estimates that extending ARPA APTCs permanently, along with Medicaid expansion where applicable, would increase ACA market coverage by approximately 7.4 million people, decrease uninsured individuals by 5.6 million, and lower average monthly premiums by 10% due to a healthier risk pool and enhanced subsidies.

Assumptions and Limitations:
The analysis assumes ARPA subsidies are permanent, Medicaid expansion in non-expansion states with 50% probability, and the full effects of ARPA were incorporated in 2021 modeling. Actual outcomes depend on predefined probabilities and may vary due to external factors.