2025-05-20-Bernstein-运输与机械卡车运输市场指标显示份额向铁路转移_在即将到来的提前拉动中应持续_美国机械之空运与地面运输_20页_813kb

报告摘要

Surface Transportation Analysis Summary

Background

This report updates the outlook for surface transportation rates in the U.S., focusing on airfreight and machinery sectors. Key findings include indicators pointing to a shift in freight volume from trucks to rail due to market tightening and trade policy deescalation. Data suggests improvements in freight cycles but lingering pressures from recent tariffs.

Trucking Market

Truck spot rates have slowed and dipped into negative YoY growth in May 2025, reversing earlier gains.
Contract rates remain positive YoY, with no significant room for shippers to lower rates further.
Capacity rationalization continues, with trucks exiting the market, indicated by rising load-to-truck ratios and declining new truck orders.
Short-term outlook: Rates should improve in the summer as trade policy eases, boosting freight volumes and supporting contract rates.

Intermodal vs. Truck

Intermodal rates are suppressed due to low truck rates but are gaining freight share, with domestic intermodal volumes rising +4% YoY in the first quarter.
Rail appears cheaper relative to trucks, with wider pricing spreads benefiting rail intermodal demand.
Despite low rates, intermodal uptake suggests a structural shift, though equipment oversupply delays significant rate increases.

Volume and Share Shift

Evidence of share transfer from trucks to rail, with intermodal volumes up and rail carloads improving YoY.
In January-March 2025, domestic intermodal loadings grew +6% YoY, while truck volumes showed muted gains, indicating tighter truck market conditions.

Demand Drivers

Goods spending growth is outpacing services, driven by pull-forward freight ahead of tariffs.
Consumer sentiment is weak, potentially linked to tariff fears, but expected to improve with trade policy deescalation.
Manufacturing PMI remains in contraction, but recovery is anticipated as tariffs ease.

Investment Implications

For transportation: Spots and contracts should recover slowly; companies with higher leverage include Union Pacific (UNP) and Norfolk Southern (NSC).
For machinery: Cummins (CMI) and Paccar (PCAR) are exposed; PCAR is preferred due to direct Class 8 exposure and higher gross margins.
Overall, the recovery is incomplete but accelerating, with risks from trade uncertainty.

Outlook

Short-term: Summer should see improved spot rates due to policy changes, lifting contract rates later.
Long-term: Deescalatory trade policies, nearshoring, and potential energy cost reductions could boost demand, supporting sustained freight and machinery markets.

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