2013年-ECB欧洲央行_December_2013_Eurosystem_staff_macroeconomic_projections_for_the_euro_area_10页_304kb

2013 Eurosystem Staff Macroeconomic Projections for the Euro Area Summary

Core Content Overview

The December 2013 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections outline the expected trajectory of the euro area economy over the period 2013–2015, with a focus on GDP growth, inflation, fiscal policy, and external factors. The analysis highlights both the gradual recovery and the persistent challenges in the region.

Real GDP Growth Projections

• Growth Trends: Real GDP is projected to decline by 0.4% in 2013, then increase by 1.1% in 2014 and 1.5% in 2015.
• Drivers of Growth:
  • A gradual recovery in domestic and external demand is expected to drive the increase in activity.
  • Domestic demand will benefit from:
    • Reduced uncertainty
    • An accommodative monetary policy (supported by a rate cut and forward guidance)
    • Lower fiscal drag
    • A drop in commodity prices, which supports real disposable incomes
    • Fading credit supply constraints
  • Export growth is also expected to be a key factor due to a strengthening of external demand.
• Challenges:
  • High unemployment and the need for further private and public sector balance sheet adjustments will continue to weigh on the growth outlook.
  • The recovery is expected to remain subdued by historical standards, with real GDP reaching its pre-crisis level (Q1 2008) only by the end of 2015.
• Employment Outlook:
  • Employment is projected to broadly stagnate in the early part of the projection horizon.
  • A modest increase is expected from mid-2014 onwards, with labour productivity also improving over the period.

Inflation Projections (HICP)

• Headline HICP Inflation:
  • 1.4% in 2013, 1.1% in 2014, and 1.3% in 2015.
  • A revised downward trend compared to the September 2013 projection.
• Inflation Drivers:
  • Moderate price outlook is attributed to:
    • Declining oil price futures
    • The past appreciation of the euro
    • Persistent slack in the economy
  • Food price inflation is expected to decline substantially.
• Excluding Energy and Food:
  • HICP inflation is projected to rise slightly from 1.1% in 2013 to 1.3% in 2014 and 1.4% in 2015.
  • Subdued domestic cost pressures are expected due to the moderate recovery in activity.

International Environment

• Global Real GDP Growth (excluding the euro area):
  • Projected to increase gradually, from 3.3% in 2014 to 4.1% in 2015.
  • Advanced economies show some growth momentum in 2013, while emerging markets experience weaker growth due to limited policy space and structural constraints.
• Global Trade:
  • Expected to increase from 3.9% in 2013 to 6.4% in 2015.
  • Euro area foreign demand is projected to grow by 3.0% in 2013, 5.0% in 2014, and 5.7% in 2015.
  • This growth is slower than global trade, due to weaker domestic demand within the euro area.
• Exchange Rates:
  • The USD/EUR exchange rate is assumed to remain at 1.33 in 2013 and 1.34 in 2014–2015, reflecting a 4.6% appreciation compared to 2012.
  • The euro nominal effective exchange rate is expected to appreciate by 3.7% in 2013, then rise modestly by 0.8% in 2014, and remain stable in 2015.

Technical Assumptions

• Interest Rates:
  • Three-month EURIBOR is expected to average 0.2% in 2013, 0.3% in 2014, and 0.5% in 2015.
  • Ten-year government bond yields are projected to be 2.9% in 2013, 3.1% in 2014, and 3.6% in 2015.
• Commodity Prices:
  • Oil prices are expected to fall from USD 112.0 in 2012 to USD 108.2 in 2013, USD 103.9 in 2014, and USD 99.2 in 2015.
  • Non-energy commodity prices are projected to decline in 2013 and 2014 before rising by 3.7% in 2015.
• Fiscal Policy:
  • Based on national budget plans available by November 2013.
  • Includes measures approved by national parliaments and those well-specified by governments.
  • Fiscal consolidation is expected to continue, with a decline in the general government deficit from 3.7% of GDP in 2012 to 2.4% in 2015.

Fiscal Outlook and Sensitivity Analysis

• General Government Deficit:
  • Projected to fall from 3.7% of GDP in 2012 to 3.2% in 2013, 2.6% in 2014, and 2.4% in 2015.
  • The structural budget balance is expected to improve in 2013 and gradually in the following years.
• Gross Debt-to-GDP Ratio:
  • Projected to peak at 93.6% in 2014, then decline to 93.1% in 2015.
• Fiscal Sensitivity Analysis:
  • Additional fiscal consolidation is expected to be necessary to meet fiscal targets.
  • Additional consolidation is projected to be:
    • 0.2% of GDP in 2014
    • 0.6% of GDP in 2015, with a cumulative effect of 0.8% of GDP by end-2015.
  • The analysis considers the composition of fiscal measures, including tax increases and spending cuts, and their macroeconomic impacts on GDP and inflation.

Key Challenges and Outlook

• Persistent Slack: A significant amount of slack is expected to remain in the economy until the end of the projection horizon.
• Unemployment: High unemployment is expected to continue to weigh on growth.
• Rebalancing: While some progress has been made in rebalancing, particularly in stressed countries, the process is not yet complete.
• Moderate Recovery: The overall recovery is expected to be moderate, with HICP inflation remaining low and subdued domestic demand continuing to limit growth momentum.