2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Rwanda_Poverty_Reduction_Strategy_Paper_10页_241kb

Rwanda Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper – Joint Staff Advisory Note Summary

Overview

Rwanda has achieved significant progress in poverty reduction and economic growth during the first Poverty Reduction Strategy (2002-06) and the first Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS 1; 2008-2013). Key achievements include:

• Economic Growth: Real GDP grew at an average annual rate of 8%.
• Poverty Reduction: Poverty dropped from 57% in 2006 to 45% in 2011.
• Income Inequality: Reduced due to pro-poor growth.
• Social Indicators: Improved primary school completion rates (79% in 2011 vs. 51% in 2008) and lower child mortality (54 per 1,000 live births in 2011 vs. 76 in 2008).

The second Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS 2) covers fiscal years 2013/14–2017/18 and builds on the lessons of EDPRS 1. It aims to accelerate growth, reduce poverty further, and decrease aid dependency.

Key Objectives of EDPRS 2

• Accelerate Growth: Targeting 11.5% average annual real GDP growth between 2012 and 2020.
• Reduce Poverty: Bring the national poverty rate below 30%.
• Enhance Self-Reliance: Reduce reliance on external aid.
• Four Thematic Areas:
  1. Economic Transformation: Shift towards a more industrial and diversified economy.
  2. Rural Development: Focus on poverty reduction through social protection and agricultural development.
  3. Productivity and Youth Employment: Ensure skills match labor market needs and support micro-enterprise growth.
  4. Accountable Governance: Improve public service delivery and citizen participation.

Participatory Process

• The EDPRS 2 was developed through extensive consultations with the public, including youth, the private sector, civil society, and academia.
• A communication strategy was implemented, including a customized website, toll-free SMS line, and nationwide road shows.
• Umuganda Days were used to collect citizens’ views and contributions.
• The strategy will continue to promote public understanding and ownership of the development agenda for the first two years.

Macroeconomic Framework and Costing

• The macroeconomic framework targets 11.5% average annual real GDP growth by 2020, requiring a significant acceleration from previous growth rates.
• The strategy emphasizes export-oriented investment in business tourism, financial services, and light manufacturing.
• Challenges:
  • Funding and implementation of public and private investment, especially with declining aid inflows.
  • Sustainability of policies amid reduced public and private consumption.
• Recommendations:
  • Use more prudent macroeconomic assumptions for medium-term planning.
  • Assume a lower growth rate (7–7.5%) in the budget framework for 2013/14–2015/16.
  • Explore alternative funding modalities and assess their implications for debt sustainability.
  • Increase domestic revenue mobilization and improve tax systems to support public investment.

Thematic Areas and Cross-Cutting Issues

A. Economic Transformation

• Aims to promote a more industrial and urban economy through:
  • Infrastructure investment.
  • Boosting exports.
  • Strengthening the private sector.
  • Promoting public-private partnerships.
• Challenges: Private investment remains low despite improved investment climate.
• Recommendations: Prioritize investment programs with proper sequencing and ensure adequate financing for private sector growth.

B. Rural Development

• Social protection programs, such as the Vision Umurenge Program, have been scaled up.
• Emphasis on agricultural productivity and infrastructure.
• Challenges: Limited clarity on how to develop specialized agricultural skills.
• Recommendations: Develop a detailed strategy for agricultural skills and improve targeting mechanisms using census data.

C. Productivity and Youth Employment

• Focus on aligning education with labor market needs.
• Emphasis on collaboration between the private sector and educational institutions.
• Challenges: Vagueness in strategies for supporting micro-enterprises.
• Recommendations: Design a solid strategy for micro-enterprise development and leverage successful interventions.

D. Accountable Governance

• Promotes citizen empowerment and public service delivery.
• Acknowledges the importance of public sector capacity and institutional restructuring.
• Challenges: Lack of attention to changing public service requirements and human rights protection.
• Recommendations: Strengthen capacity at the local level and improve human resource and public financial management systems.

Foundational and Cross-Cutting Issues

• The EDPRS 2 emphasizes capacity building across all sectors.
• Recommendations:
  • The National Capacity Building Secretariat (NCBS) should support sector diagnostics and plan development.
  • Central and subnational governments should collaborate to improve administrative capacity.
  • Expand the pool of qualified data users and enhance analytical capacity.

Monitoring and Evaluation

• A national monitoring and evaluation framework will track progress using a matrix of thematic and foundational indicators.
• The framework is designed to reduce reporting burdens and improve efficiency.
• Recommendations:
  • Develop an electronic, fully integrated M&E system.
  • The National Institute of Statistics should build M&E capacity at the decentralized level.
  • Update the national poverty line based on the 2013/14 Integrated Household Living Conditions Survey.

Risks

Internal Risks

• Climate Vulnerability: Agriculture is sensitive to weather patterns and natural disasters.
• Private Sector Performance: Limited growth despite government reforms.
• Recommendations: Enhance climate resilience in agriculture and improve the business environment for private sector development.

External Risks

• Regional Integration: Uncertainty in regional cooperation and potential conflicts.
• Donor Dependency: Vulnerability to aid cuts.
• Global Economic Conditions: Risk of prolonged global economic slump.
• Recommendations: Prepare contingency plans and monitor macroeconomic assumptions.

Conclusions

• The EDPRS 2 provides a strong and comprehensive framework for development and poverty reduction.
• It builds on the successes of EDPRS 1 while addressing its shortcomings.
• The staff recommends several actions to strengthen implementation and reduce risks, including improving domestic revenue mobilization, enhancing private sector support, and strengthening governance and monitoring systems.