20230604-天风证券-建筑材料行业研究周报_政策出现改善迹象_当前可对地产链进一步保持乐观_6页_592kb

Building Materials Industry Research Weekly Summary (June 4, 2023)

Investment Rating

• Industry rated "Stronger than Large Cap" (Maintained from previous evaluation).

Market Performance

• Over the past five trading days (May 29-June 2), CSI 300 Index rose 0.28%, while CSI Building Materials sector increased 10.7%.
• Sub-sectors: Consumption building materials outperformed; however, non-real estate links saw pullbacks due to real estate policy expectation adjustments.
• Top performers included Cube Digital (2269%), Wanli Stone (1219%), Flagstone Group (648%), Asia Paints (643%), and Ningxia Materials (609%).

Key Drivers and Outlook

• Policy Improvement: Real estate policies, such as Qingdao's adjustment requiring only 3 years for new home sale conditions, boosted market sentiment; after policy cues, the building materials index surged 408%.
• Demand Recovery Expected: If real estate front-end data improves, back-end building materials demand may bottom out.
• Current Conditions: Real estate market in a bottom oscillation range; sub-sector growth depends on further policy support.

Sector Tracking

• Cement: National cement price declined 19% due to weak demand from factors like reduced liquidity, weather, and seasonal slowdowns.
• Glass: Photovoltaic glass prices stable; float glass prices fell, indicating weak demand. Supply increases likely support continued price pressure.
• Glass Fiber: Prices modestly down, with ongoing inventory and demand monitoring; could stabilize as wind energy demand rises.

Key Recommendations

• Recommended stocks: Eastern Rain虹, San棵树, Flagstone Group, Times New Material (collaboration), Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass, Huamei Glass (collaboration).
• Sub-sectors: Focus on consumption building materials recovery, renewable energy-driven materials (e.g., photovoltaic, electronic glass), and stabilized traditional areas like cement.

Risks

• Economic factors: Real estate and infrastructure demand decline could affect cement and glass prices.
• Growth uncertainties: New material sub-sectors may not meet high growth expectations.
• Bad debt risks: Potential for higher impairments in real estate-related companies if sector does not rebound.