20180608-大华银行-Markets_Overview_5页_220kb
报告摘要
Global Economics & Markets Research Summary (08 June 2018)
Core Content Overview
This document provides a comprehensive summary of global economic and financial market developments for the week of 08 June 2018. It covers key economic data, currency movements, equity indices, interest rates, commodity prices, and upcoming market events.
Main Highlights
Economic Data Highlights
- Germany: April industrial production and trade reports are expected, with April industrial production also due in France.
- US: Final April wholesale inventory report will be released, and the G-7 Summit in Quebec is set to begin, likely influencing trade policy discussions.
- Canada: Focus on the May employment report, particularly on labor market slack and wage developments.
- Housing Starts: May data will be released, indicating housing market activity.
- Emerging Markets: EM currencies are under stress, with the Brazilian Real (BRL) weakening significantly and Argentina receiving a USD 50 bn emergency loan from the IMF. Turkey also raised its benchmark rate by over 125 bps to stabilize the Turkish Lira (TRY).
Foreign Exchange (FX) Summary
Key Currency Movements
- USD/SGD: The SGD NEER remained at a 0.90% premium above the mid-point of the policy band, with USD/SGD spot fluctuating between 1.3308 and 1.3340.
- USD/CNY: The central parity fixing rate remained stable at 6.3912, with spot consolidating around 6.39.
- EUR/USD: The EUR rose to 1.1840 before a modest pullback, pushing the USD Index to a 3-week low of 93.21.
- USD/JPY: Briefly dipped below 109.50 due to a sudden plunge in UST yields.
- AUD/USD: Continued to weaken, reaching 0.7613, while NZD showed some catch-up but remained above 1.08.
FX Reserves
- China: FX reserves fell by USD 14 bn in May, returning to levels similar to those in November 2017.
- Malaysia: FX reserves dropped to USD 109.4 bn.
- Hong Kong: FX reserves fell to USD 432.1 bn.
- Singapore: FX reserves remained stable at just under USD 288 bn.
Equity Markets
- US: Major indices ended mixed. The Dow Jones rose 0.38%, the S&P 500 fell 0.07%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.70%.
- Europe: Equities closed slightly lower, primarily due to travel and leisure stocks.
- Asia: The Tokyo Nikkei 225 rose 0.87%, while the Shanghai Composite fell 0.18% and the India Sensex rose 0.81%.
US Treasuries
- Yields: US Treasury yields fell on Thursday, driven by safe-haven demand amid trade tensions ahead of the G-7 Summit.
- 10-Year Treasury Bond: Closed at 2.92%, down 5.1 bps from the prior day.
- 2-Year Treasury Note: Closed at 2.49%, down 2.9 bps.
- Securities Sales: The US Treasury Department planned to sell USD 68 billion in 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year securities the following week.
Commodities
- Gold: Rose due to USD weakness, but gains were limited as markets awaited the Fed's next meeting.
- Oil: Surged over USD 1 per barrel due to concerns about Venezuela's export declines and potential OPEC production cuts.
Key Economic Indicators
| Date | Indicator | Actual | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Jun | AU GDP q/q sa | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| 06 Jun | AU GDP y/y | 3.1% | 2.4% |
| 07 Jun | US Initial Jobless Claims | 222k | 223k |
| 07 Jun | US Continuing Claims | 1,741k | 1,720k |
| 08 Jun | CN Foreign Reserves USD | 3,110.62bn | 3,124.85bn |
| 08 Jun | CN Retail Sales y/y | 9.4% | 3.4% |
| 08 Jun | CN Industrial Production y/y | 7.0% | 3.4% |
| 08 Jun | US Wholesale Inventories m/m | - | 0.0% |
| 08 Jun | US Retail Sales Advance m/m | - | 0.2% |
| 08 Jun | US Retail Sales Ex Auto m/m | - | 0.3% |
Interest Rates
| Currency | Rate | Next CB Meet | UOB Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 1.50-1.75% | 14 Jun | 1.50-1.75% |
| EUR | 0.00% | 14 Jun | 0.00% |
| GBP | 0.50% | 21 Jun | 0.50% |
| AUD | 1.50% | 03 Jul | 1.50% |
| NZD | 1.75% | 28 Jun | 1.75% |
| JPY | 0-0.10% | 15 Jun | 0-0.10% |
| SGD | 1.52% | - | - |
| MYR | 3.25% | 11 Jul | 3.25% |
| IDR | 4.75% | 28 Jun | 4.75% |
| THB | 1.50% | 20 Jun | 1.50% |
| PHP | 3.25% | 21 Jun | 3.25% |
| INR | 6.25% | 01 Aug | 6.25% |
| TWD | 1.375% | 21 Jun | 1.375% |
| KRW | 1.50% | 12 Jul | 1.50% |
| HKD | 1.00% | - | 1.00% |
| CNY | 4.35% | - | 4.60% |
Market Events and Holidays
- G-7 Summit: Begins on 08 June in Quebec, expected to generate headlines on US trade policy.
- Market Holidays/Events:
- Australia: Queen’s Birthday Holiday on 11 June.
- Philippines: Independence Day on 12 June.
- Indonesia: Hari Raya Aidilfitri on 13-19 June.
- Singapore/Malaysia: Hari Raya Puasa on 15 June.
- China/Hong Kong/Taiwan: Dragon Boat Day on 18 June.
- Hong Kong: HKSAR Establishment on 2 July.
- US: Independence Day on 4 July.
- Japan: Marine Day on 16 July.
- Thailand: Asarnha Bucha Day on 27 July, King’s Birthday on 30 July.
- Australia: Bank Holiday on 6 August.
- Singapore: National Day on 9 August.
- Thailand: Queen’s Birthday on 12 August.
- South Korea: Liberation Day on 15 August.
Disclaimer
This document is for informational purposes only and should not be used for investment decisions. It is not an offer, recommendation, or advice to buy or sell any investment product. UOB Group may have positions in the securities mentioned and does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. Views expressed are those of the author and may differ from those of UOB Group.
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