2025-06-03-Bernstein-金宝汤公司（CPB）_康宝汤业（CPB）_2025年第三季度表现尚可-餐食和饮料业务强劲_零食业务较弱_重申2025财年指引_12页_451kb

Campbell Soup Co (CPB) Analysis Summary

Key Financial Performance (3Q25)

• Revenue: $2,475 million, 1.0% YoY growth, beating consensus estimates by $46 million.
• Adjusted EPS: $0.73, up 2.3% YoY but down by 2.2% from last quarter, beating expectations.
• EBIT: $362.0 million, up 2.3% YoY.
• Organic sales growth: 1.0% YoY (price -1%, volume/mix +2%), exceeding consensus.

Business Segments

• Meals & Beverages: Strong performance with 4.5% OSG, driven by soup volume/mix growth of ~2%, Rao’s pasta sauces, and international markets. Exceeded expectations relative to snacks.
• Snacks Division: Weak, with -2.0% OSG due to declines in key products like Goldfish crackers and Snyder’s pretzels; attributed to consumer value-seeking and GLP-1 drug uptake.

Analyst Ratings and Forecast

• Rating: Outperform, price target lowered from $47 to $44 per share.
• Reason: Based on 9.8x forward EV/EBITDA multiple and reduced EBITDA estimate to $2,013 million, reflecting moderation in growth outlook due to Snacks weakness and potential tariffs.
• Short-term guidance: For FY25, sales growth 6%-8%, EBIT growth 3%-5%, EPS decline -4% to -1%.

Key Factors and Risks

• Strengths: Resilient Meals & Beverages category, volume/mix improvements, better performance than other U.S. Food peers.
• Weaknesses: Snacks segment under pressure from consumer trends and GLP-1 drugs; margin declines YoY.
• Risks: Tariffs remain uncertain, potential for worse Snacks performance, cost synergy delays, and commodity price increases. If GLP-1 adoption slows, the soup category's benefits may be overstated.
• Forward outlook: Continued strength in meals and beverages expected, but Snacks could drag on growth in FY26.

Valuation and Financial Projections

• Price target $44, implying fair value based on adjusted P/E of ~11.4x or EV/EBITDA ~8.7x.
• Financial metrics: Gross margin 30.1%, operating margin 14.6% (down 0.3 pts YoY), ROIC ~8.8%.
• Long-term growth: Guided EPS decline in FY25 at midpoint ($0.62), with CAGR projections stabilizing around 1-3% in certain scenarios.

Conclusion

The report reiterates a positive view on Campbell Soup, highlighting key strengths in its core business while cautioning on Snacks segment and external risks like tariffs. Downgrades reflect conservative assumptions on future performance.