2016年-德勤全球_Asia-Pacific_Defense_Outlook_2016_15页_1mb

报告摘要

Asia-Pacific Defense Outlook 2016 Summary

Core Content

The Asia-Pacific Defense Outlook 2016 report provides an analysis of defense policies, practices, and trends across 19 Asia-Pacific countries. It categorizes these countries into three strategic profiles based on their defense budgeting approaches: Investors, Balancers, and Economizers. The report also highlights the increasing prominence of Asia-Pacific countries in global defense markets and the growing focus on domestic production and export capabilities.

Main Categories and Key Points

1. Defense Budget Trends

By 2020, the Asia-Pacific will account for nearly one-third of global defense budgets, and more than one-third of all active-duty military personnel.
Conventional armed conflict in the region declined by 30% from 2001–2014 compared to 1985–2000, with 80% of conflicts involving India, Pakistan, or Myanmar.
Piracy incidents in the Asia-Pacific increased by 30% from 2010–2014, despite a global decline of 45%.
Cyber threats are a growing concern, with the "Cyber Five" (South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and Singapore) being nine times more vulnerable to cyberattacks than other Asian economies.

2. Economic Context of Defense Investments

Asia-Pacific economies are expected to drive 60% of the global increase in defense acquisition and 30% of the global defense acquisition budget by 2020.
Defense budgets are growing at a slower rate than GDP in most countries, with China, India, and South Korea leading the growth in regional defense spending.
Economizers (Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar) have one-third of the region's GDP and 28% of the regional defense budget, with defense spending projected to decline.
Investors (Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam) are the only group with aggressive growth in defense budgets, though they account for just 3% of regional GDP and 3% of the total regional defense budget.

3. Strategic Profiles

Investors: Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam
- Plan for 6% annual defense budget growth.
- GDP growth is twice as fast as defense budget growth.
- Represent 3% of Asia-Pacific economic output and 3% of the total defense budget.
Economizers: Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar
- Account for one-third of GDP and 28% of defense budget.
- Defense spending is declining as a percentage of government expenditure.
- South Korea is reducing active-duty forces by 20%, Malaysia is cutting budgets due to slowing growth, and Japan maintains a 1% GDP defense spending cap.
Balancers:
- Higher-Growth Balancers: China, India, Pakistan, Singapore, Philippines
  - China's defense budget is expected to add $18B in annual procurement and R&D by 2019.
  - China's military strategy emphasizes open-ocean capabilities, informationization, joint operations, and information dominance.
- Lower-Growth Balancers: Australia, Brunei, India, New Zealand, Taiwan
  - Account for 23% of regional defense budgets, with India and Australia holding the largest shares.
  - India is expanding its defense industry as part of its "Make in India" strategy.
  - Australia aims to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2020.

4. Alignment of Defense and Domestic Priorities

Defense spending as a percentage of GDP is declining, with civilian investment increasing.
Military personnel expenses have increased by 10% for Balancers between 2010–2013, with India increasing compensation by 23% for military personnel.
The labor force involved in military service has declined since 2001, due to economic growth and increased civilian opportunities.
Japan saw a 20% drop in military job applications in 2015 compared to 2014.

5. Global Defense Market Trends

Asia-Pacific defense budgets are expected to increase to just under 30% of the global market by 2020, up from 27% in 2015.
US share of global defense procurement and R&D is projected to decline to 40%, while Asia-Pacific will increase its share.
The region is becoming a major driver of global defense R&D and procurement growth, especially due to the expansion of naval capabilities.

6. Domestic Production and Export Growth

India is leading efforts to increase domestic defense production, with foreign investment allowed up to 49% in defense businesses.
China has established an advisory institute to guide its defense industry's strategic development, including submarine construction and carrier-based aviation.
Japan has relaxed defense export policies, aiming to export its submarine designs to Australia in a $50B deal.
Australia is investing over $30B in its Future Submarine Program.
Indonesia plans to acquire 12 diesel-electric submarines by 2024.
South Korea has formed an integrated submarine command structure.
Pakistan is acquiring 8 new attack submarines from China.
India is building a nuclear-powered submarine fleet and has 47 new vessels under construction.

7. Defense Policy Drivers

The report identifies four domains of defense policy:
- Conventional Conflict: Declining, but maritime security remains a key concern.
- Terrorism: 90% of deaths occur in Pakistan, India, Philippines, and Thailand.
- Migration: A challenge in China, Myanmar, and Pakistan, with 63% increase in refugee populations from Asia-Pacific countries between 2008–2014.
- Cyber Threats: The "Cyber Five" are particularly vulnerable to cyberattacks.

8. Cybersecurity and Regional Security

The "Cyber Five" (South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and Singapore) are nine times more vulnerable to cyberattacks than other Asian economies.
Cyber threats are increasingly seen as a critical security challenge.

9. Naval Buildup and Maritime Security

Naval budgets are projected to grow by over 60% by 2019, with a focus on submarines and counter-piracy capabilities.
China is building 30 new submarines and one aircraft carrier by 2019.
India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Indonesia are all expanding their naval forces and counter-piracy operations.
Asia-Pacific navies are gaining experience in remote operations and cooperating with foreign fleets to secure maritime trade routes.

10. North Korea and Regional Security

North Korea tested a hydrogen bomb and submarine-launched missile in January 2016, drawing international condemnation.
The report does not include North Korea in many analyses due to limited public data on its defense policies and budgets.

Conclusion

The Asia-Pacific region is experiencing significant shifts in defense strategy and budgeting, driven by economic growth, technological development, and increased maritime trade. While defense budgets are growing more slowly than GDP in most countries, naval capabilities are expanding rapidly, particularly in China, India, and Australia, due to the importance of maritime commerce and counter-piracy needs. The "Cyber Five" are particularly vulnerable to cyber threats, and the decline in conventional conflict has shifted the focus of defense policy toward maritime and cyber security. North Korea remains a security concern, but is excluded from detailed analysis due to limited transparency in its defense activities.