2017年-世界发展银行全球_Taxing_the_Good____Distortions_Misallocation_and_Productivity_in_Sub-Saharan_Africa_37页_1mb

Summary of "Taxing the Good? Distortions, Misallocation, and Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa"

Core Content

This paper investigates the extent, costs, and nature of within-industry resource misallocation in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, focusing on Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Ghana, and Kenya. It employs firm-level manufacturing census data to analyze how misallocation of resources affects total factor productivity (TFP) and economic performance.

Main Findings

• Severe Misallocation: The study finds significant resource misallocation in all four countries, with resources being diverted from high-productivity to low-productivity firms.
• Productivity Gains from Reallocation: A hypothetical reallocation of resources to equalize marginal returns across firms could increase manufacturing productivity by 31.4% in Côte d'Ivoire, 67% in Ethiopia, 76% in Ghana, and 162.7% in Kenya.
• Data Quality Matters: The paper highlights the importance of data quality, showing that the World Bank Enterprise Surveys (ES) underestimate the degree of misallocation compared to census data. The ES overestimates the size of the largest firms, leading to less accurate measurements of misallocation.
• Distortions and Business Environment: The size of existing distortions is correlated with various measures of the business environment, such as access to finance, corruption, and regulations.
• Nature of Distortions: Output distortions are more strongly correlated with physical productivity than capital-labor ratio distortions, indicating that policies affecting output and market frictions are more significant in driving misallocation.
• Firm Life Cycle: Employment growth over time, conditional on firm survival, is flat across all countries, which is attributed mainly to the life-cycle evolution of physical productivity, with a minor role from age-dependent distortions.
• Policy Implications: The paper suggests that while the data does not allow for precise causal identification, the strong correlation between distortions and business environment indicators indicates that business costs are likely to play a key role in misallocation.

Methodology

• The paper builds on the work of Hsieh and Klenow (2009) and Restuccia and Rogerson (2008), using a structural theory of misallocation to quantify the inefficiencies.
• It measures allocative distortions as deviations from the output-maximizing rule of equalizing marginal returns across firms.
• The paper compares census-based data with the World Bank Enterprise Surveys to highlight the importance of representative data in capturing the true extent of misallocation.

Key Data Insights

• Firm Size Distribution:
  • Kenyan firms are, on average, larger than firms in the other three countries.
  • The median firm size in Kenya is 34 workers, while in Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, and Ghana, it is 9, 8, and 12 workers respectively.
  • The firm size distribution in Kenya differs significantly from that in the other countries.
• Sectoral Contribution to GDP:
  • Manufacturing contributes more than 10% to GDP in Côte d'Ivoire and Kenya.
  • In Ethiopia and Ghana, it contributes 4.1% and 5.1%, respectively, which are below the SSA average.
• Historical Context:
  • The four countries have historically pursued different industrialization strategies, including Import Substitution Industrialization (ISI), which often led to inefficiencies and resource misallocation.
  • Since the 1980s, all countries have implemented structural adjustment programs (SAPs) under the guidance of the World Bank and IMF.
  • Ethiopia, Ghana, and Kenya have launched industrial policies in recent years, with varying degrees of success and impact on the business environment.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that resource misallocation is a major barrier to productivity growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. It underscores the importance of accurate and representative data in identifying and quantifying these distortions. The findings suggest that improving the business environment by reducing costs and increasing access to finance and other resources could significantly enhance productivity and economic performance in the region. However, the study also cautions against over-interpreting the results due to limitations in data coverage and potential confounding factors.

Key Points

• Misallocation is widespread: All four countries show significant misallocation of resources.
• Productivity losses are substantial: The potential gains from correcting misallocation are large, particularly in Kenya.
• Data limitations affect results: Census data provides a more accurate picture of misallocation than Enterprise Surveys.
• Policies influence distortions: Business environment indicators such as access to credit and regulatory quality are correlated with the extent of misallocation.
• Firm life cycle and productivity: Physical productivity plays a more significant role in shaping the life-cycle growth of firms than distortions.