战略与国际研究中心-Voices-of-a-New-Afghanistan_30页_499kb

Summary of "Voices of a New Afghanistan" (July 2005)

Core Content

The Post-Conflict Reconstruction (PCR) Project by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) conducted a comprehensive study of Afghanistan's reconstruction efforts from April 16 to April 28, 2005. The project involved 12 Afghan researchers who conducted 1,060 interviews with 1,609 Afghans across 20 of the country’s 34 provinces. The goal was to assess the progress of reconstruction through the lens of ordinary citizens, focusing on how their daily lives and perceptions of stability and development have been affected.

The study is organized around five key pillars of reconstruction:

• Security
• Governance and Participation
• Justice and Accountability
• Economic Opportunity
• Social Well-being

Each interview was analyzed using a graphing methodology that plots responses on a two-axis system:

• Y-axis: Whether immediate needs and interests are being met
• X-axis: The level of Afghan capacity to meet these needs in the long term

This approach allows for a visual representation of how Afghans perceive the balance between short-term aid and long-term institutional development.

Main Findings

• Afghans support changes since the fall of the Taliban, but believe these improvements are too slow and not benefiting all.
• Corruption is a major barrier to progress, especially in local and provincial governance.
• Security is a top concern, with crime (kidnapping, murder, robbery) being the most significant threat. While Taliban and Al Qaeda are seen as less of a threat, their presence is still feared.
• The Afghan National Army (ANA) is well-regarded and seen as capable of providing stability, whereas the Afghan National Police (ANP) receives mixed reviews due to corruption and inefficiency.
• Governance and participation are rated in the Viable Zone, reflecting support for the central government and President Karzai, but criticism of local officials and lack of tangible improvements.
• Justice and accountability are rated in Risk Zone B, indicating that while some capacity exists, it is not aligned with immediate needs. The formal justice system is seen as ineffective and corrupt, with many relying on traditional systems like shuras and councils of elders.
• Economic opportunity is the lowest-rated pillar, though not in the Danger Zone. Joblessness and poverty remain significant issues, and international aid is often criticized for being misused.
• Social well-being shows some progress in health care, education, and infrastructure, but significant gaps still exist. There is no clear consensus on priorities, but expectations remain high.

Key Themes

Security

• Crime is the main security threat, with rising incidents of kidnapping, murder, and robbery.
• International military presence is seen as essential to prevent violence.
• ANA is viewed positively, while ANP is criticized for corruption and inefficiency.
• Warlords continue to undermine the rule of law and governance.

Governance and Participation

• Central government is supported, particularly through President Karzai.
• Local and provincial governance is widely discredited due to corruption and lack of effectiveness.
• Elections are seen as a potential tool for accountability and improving governance, but concerns exist about repeating patterns of corruption.

Justice and Accountability

• Formal justice system is nonfunctional and corrupt.
• Traditional justice mechanisms are used in some areas, but not sufficient for many.
• Bribery and corruption are widespread, and justice is seen as a privilege of the wealthy.

Economic Opportunity

• Reconstruction efforts have not created enough jobs or economic opportunities.
• Poppy cultivation is seen as both a livelihood and a symbol of failure.
• Corruption in government salaries and police incentives hinders development.

Social Well-being

• Improvements in health care, education, and infrastructure are noted, but gaps remain.
• Afghans expect more and are disillusioned by the lack of visible progress.
• Access to basic services is limited, and poverty persists.

Methodology

• The study used a structured interview approach with 12 Afghan researchers.
• Interviews ranged from 30 minutes to one hour, allowing for in-depth conversations.
• Women were included in the research team and among the interviewees, with 4 of 12 researchers and 606 of 1609 interviewees being female.
• The graphing method visualized reconstruction progress across five regions and five pillars, highlighting immediate needs vs. long-term capacity.

Regional View

• Security was most positively rated, with eastern and southern regions showing lower ratings.
• Governance was rated in the Viable Zone, but local government was heavily criticized.
• Justice and accountability were rated in Risk Zone B, with low trust in both national and international actors.
• Economic opportunity was the lowest in all regions, though not in the Danger Zone.
• Social well-being showed some progress, but high expectations remain.

Cross-cutting Trends

• Corruption is a common theme across all five pillars.
• Afghans feel disconnected from the central government and rely on local leaders who are often corrupt.
• Security and governance are interdependent, with progress in one area often affecting the other.
• Expectations are high, but progress is perceived as slow and uneven.

Conclusion

The Voices of a New Afghanistan report underscores the complex and multifaceted nature of post-conflict reconstruction in Afghanistan. It emphasizes the need for integrated, long-term strategies that not only provide immediate relief but also build sustainable institutions and local capacity. The perceptions of Afghans are central to understanding the success or failure of reconstruction efforts, and the report highlights the importance of listening to local voices in shaping policy and future direction.