2012-12-03-皮尤-Pessimism_About_Fiscal_Cliff_Deal,_Republicans_Still_Get_More_Blame_13页_379kb

Summary of the Pew Research Center Survey on the Fiscal Cliff (December 4, 2012)

Core Content

The Pew Research Center survey conducted from November 29 to December 2, 2012, highlights public opinion on the fiscal cliff, a set of automatic spending cuts and tax increases that were set to take effect on January 1, 2013, unless a deal was reached. The survey included 1,003 adults across the United States and provided insights into the perceived likelihood of a compromise, the consequences of the fiscal cliff, and the public's understanding of the issue.

Main Findings

Pessimism About Reaching a Deal

• Overall: 40% of Americans expect a deal to be reached before the Jan. 1 deadline, while 49% believe no agreement will be made.
• Democrats: 55% expect a deal, significantly higher than Republicans (22%) and independents (37%).
• Blame Distribution: If no agreement is reached, 53% of Americans blame congressional Republicans, while 27% blame President Obama. Democrats are more likely to assign blame to Republicans (77%) than to Obama.

Public Understanding of the Fiscal Cliff

• Only 28% of Americans understand the consequences of the fiscal cliff very well, and 29% fairly well. The majority (41%) feel they understand it not too well or not at all.
• Demographics: Younger Americans (under 30) and those with lower family incomes or less education are less likely to understand the implications of the fiscal cliff.
• Partisan Differences: There are modest differences in understanding, with 61% of Republicans, 58% of Democrats, and 55% of independents reporting they understand the consequences very or fairly well.

Perceived Effects of the Fiscal Cliff

• Economic Impact: 64% believe the fiscal cliff would have a major effect on the U.S. economy, while 20% think it would have a minor effect and 7% say no effect.
• Personal Impact: 43% believe it would have a major effect on their personal finances, 35% think minor, and 14% think no effect.
• Overall Impact: 60% of Americans think the effect would be mostly negative on the economy, and 61% believe it would be mostly negative on their own finances.

Key Information

Political Partisanship

• Republicans: More pessimistic about reaching a deal and more likely to blame Republicans if no agreement is made.
• Democrats: More optimistic about the possibility of a deal and more likely to assign blame to Republicans than to Obama.
• Independents: Remain in the middle, with similar levels of pessimism and blame attribution as Republicans.

News Interest

• The fiscal cliff debate was the top news story for the public, with 40% following it very closely.
• Other major news stories included the debate over Susan Rice becoming Secretary of State (21%), political violence in Syria (15%), and the U.N. debate on the Palestinian territories (14%).

Survey Methodology

• The survey was conducted via both landline and cell phone calls.
• The sample was weighted to reflect demographic and political characteristics of the U.S. population.
• The survey has a 95% confidence level with a sampling error of approximately ±3.7 percentage points for the total sample.

Conclusion

The survey underscores widespread public pessimism about the ability to avoid the fiscal cliff and highlights a clear partisan divide in expectations and blame attribution. Despite the lack of understanding, most Americans believe the fiscal cliff would have serious negative consequences for both the economy and their personal financial situations. The debate over the fiscal cliff remains a major focus of public attention, with significant interest compared to other news stories.