2008年-世界发展银行全球_Turkey_-_Country_Economic_Memorandum____Sustaining_High_Growth__Selected_Issues_Volume_1_Main_Report_62页_2mb

Turkey Country Economic Memorandum Summary

Core Content

This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) outlines the challenges and opportunities facing Turkey in sustaining high economic growth and improving public policy outcomes. The report is prepared in collaboration with Turkish authorities and aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of recent achievements, remaining challenges, and policy options for achieving inclusive and sustainable growth.

Main Report Structure

1. Introduction

• The Turkish government's public policy program focuses on improving the quality of life of its citizens.
• The goal is to double the nominal per capita income by 2013.
• The program aims to ensure that growth is inclusive across regions, sectors, and social groups.
• Public services are considered a key complement to economic growth.
• Environmental sustainability is also emphasized as a critical component of long-term welfare improvements.

2. Ensuring Sustainability of Fast Growth

• Macroeconomic stability is essential but not sufficient for sustaining growth.
• Turkey has achieved macroeconomic stability through sound fiscal and monetary policies and global support.
• However, challenges remain, particularly in job creation and reducing the current account deficit (CAD).
• Investment to GDP ratio needs to increase to above 30% to sustain 7% growth, especially in tradable sectors.
• FDI remains low compared to new EU members and is mostly directed to the services sector, limiting its impact on productivity.
• Exchange rate depreciation is unlikely to significantly improve external balances due to low price elasticity of Turkey's trade.
• Improving trade competitiveness and increasing domestic savings are critical for reducing CAD.
• Structural reforms in energy, transport, and labor markets are necessary to enhance competitiveness and attract FDI.

3. Productivity and Competitiveness

• Productivity gains have helped maintain competitiveness despite rising wages and currency appreciation.
• Most sectors have maintained export shares of GDP despite real exchange rate appreciation.
• Productivity growth is largely due to increased capacity utilization, which may not be sustainable in the long run.
• Efficient reallocation of labor and capital to more productive firms is crucial for future productivity growth.
• Innovation and technology adoption are lagging in Turkey, especially compared to fast-growing emerging markets and new EU members.
• Improving the business environment and labor force skills will support higher productivity.
• Access to energy and financial markets is key for competitiveness, and reforms in these areas are necessary.
• Reduction of SOEs in non-tradable sectors will improve competitiveness due to higher productivity in private manufacturing.

4. Public Sector Governance

• Corruption, judicial reform, and civil service efficiency are important for public support and the investment climate.
• Corruption levels in Turkey are comparable to many new EU members, but progress has been made in reducing firm-level bribery.
• Key challenges include improving asset monitoring, conflict of interest laws, the Right to Information Law, and reducing excessive immunities for officials.
• Judicial independence is a priority, with reforms needed to ensure full autonomy from the Ministry of Justice.
• Court management and legal education should be improved to increase efficiency and reduce backlogs.
• Civil service reform includes a draft law for public personnel, focusing on efficiency, performance-based pay, and fair remuneration.

5. Inclusiveness

• The informal sector accounts for about half of all jobs in Turkey.
• Employment rates are low, and unemployment rates, especially among youth and women, are high.
• Regional disparities are significant, with lagging regions (Eastern Anatolia, Southeastern Anatolia, Black Sea) having lower per capita GDP and productivity.
• Productivity differences account for 88% of the GDP per capita gap between lagging and advanced regions.
• Education and infrastructure development are key to improving regional growth and inclusiveness.
• Public investment in social sectors is positively correlated with regional growth, while incentives for regional development have limited cost-effectiveness.
• Coordinated policies across sectors and levels of government are necessary for effective regional development.

Key Information

• Currency Units: TL (until 2004), YTL (from 2005), 1 YTL = 1,000,000 TL.
• Exchange Rate: 1 USD = 1.2900 YTL (April 9, 2008).
• Fiscal Year: July 1 - June 30.
• GDP Growth: Average 7.5% per year from 2002-2006.
• Current Account Deficit (CAD): Increased to 8.1% of GNP in 2006, with inflation rising to about 10%.
• FDI: Remains low relative to other new EU members and is mostly directed to the services sector.
• Labor Market: Taxes are high, and reforms are needed to improve flexibility and social protection.
• Regional Development: Lagging regions have lower productivity and per capita GDP; improving education and infrastructure is crucial for convergence.

Conclusion

To sustain high growth and improve inclusiveness, Turkey needs to continue structural reforms, enhance the business environment, and improve public sector governance. A focus on productivity, FDI, labor market flexibility, and regional development will be essential for achieving its long-term economic and social goals.