中国外卖大战报告（英）-高盛-2025.7.3_59页_7mb

报告摘要

Competition Intensity: Food delivery and instant shopping platforms are intensifying competition, with significant investments (e.g., Alibaba's Rmb50bn food delivery fund, JD's full-time rider expansion).
TAM Growth: Food delivery market is projected to reach Rmb2.4trn by 2030 (9% CAGR), and instant shopping is expected to grow to Rmb1.5trn (18% CAGR) driven by consumer needs (urgent items, heavy goods, fresh products, luxury).
Key Players:
- Meituan: Leads food delivery (90mn daily orders), shifting focus to Instashopping and centralized kitchens (Rmb2.4trn Tam 2030E).
- JD.com: Aims to stabilize food delivery at 20mn scale, using it to drive sustainable traffic and reduce reliance on high-cost marketing (Rmb-30bn loss 2025E).
- Alibaba: Investing Rmb50bn in merchants/users; Taobao+Ele.me reached 60mn daily orders.
- PDD: Benefit from Meituan's Select exit; Duo Duo Grocery integrates former stocks, aided by SF Intra-city logistics.

Base Case Scenario: Meituan (55%), Alibaba (35%), JD (10%) in food delivery by 2026.
- JD loss (Rmb-26bn 2025E) reduced to breakeven (Rmb0.5 EBITDA/unit) by 2027E.
- P&L Impact: JD profit may halve in 2Q25E (Rmb6-7bn). Alibaba faces similar challenges.
Long-term Cross-selling Benefits: High-frequency food delivery users are leveraged for cross-selling to eCommerce, travel, and other categories, targeting lower CAC and GMV margin improvements.

Centralized Kitchens: Meituan's "Raccoon Kitchen" (1,200 planned) boosts food safety confidence and reduces costs.
Regulatory and Geopolitical Headwinds: PDD's Temu faces US tariff challenges, while on-demand retail (e.g., Duo Duo Grocery) benefits from relaxed community group buy competition.
Valuation Adjustments:
- JD: Target price unchanged (US$48); focus on 1P supply chain retail growth.
- PDD: Buy rating maintained; Temu's valuation embedded at US$131.
- Alibaba: Reduced TP (US$150) due to CMG growth moderation and Taobao-Tmall profit normalization challenges.

Near-term Headwinds: Profit declines in Q2-2025 due to sustained investments, but potential P/E re-rating on growth and policy support.
AI/Cloud Upside: Alibaba and JD leverage generative AI (Qwen) to drive cloud growth.
Risk-Adjusted Opportunities: PDD (least involved in delivery, resilient profit); Meituan (scale leader, Instashopping potential); JD.com (food delivery pivot for user acquisition).