20220901-招银国际-通达集团-00698.HK-1H22_GPM_beat__VR_AR_Auto_to_drive_LT_growth_7页_1mb
报告摘要
Tongda (698 HK) 1H22 Results and Outlook Summary
Core Financial Performance (1H22)
- Revenue: HK$ 4.3 billion, down 17% YoY, but beat estimates by 5%.
- Net Profit: HK$ 33 million, down 39% YoY, but beat consensus by 38%.
- Gross Margin (GPM): Improved to 18.1%, up 3.1 ppts YoY, driven by:
- Postponed shipment of high-margin products.
- RMB depreciation.
- Improved operating efficiency.
Segment Performance (1H22)
| Segment | Performance (HK$ mn) | YoY Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Handset casings and components | 2,859 | -22.2% |
| Household and sports goods | 674 | +14.6% |
| Network communications | 506 | -4% |
| Electrical appliances | 228 | -29.2% |
Outlook and Growth Drivers
- 2H22E:
- Expected to benefit from new iPhone orders and market share gains.
- Android market remains challenging, but management remains optimistic.
- Long-term Growth (FY23-24E):
- AR/VR business (including projects for Meta and Snap) will enter batch production in 2H22E, with meaningful sales contribution starting in 2024.
- Auto business is expected to grow significantly, contributing 50% of segment sales in 2022 (vs. 30% in 2021), supported by favorable China NEV policies and CATL as a major customer.
- Network communication business is expected to grow double-digit.
Earnings and Valuation
-
Earnings Revision:
- FY22E–24E EPS revised down by 25–43% to reflect Android weakness.
- New Target Price (TP): HK$ 0.22 (based on 5x FY23E P/E).
- Current Price: HK$ 0.12.
- Up/Downside: 83.3%.
-
Valuation Metrics:
- P/E (FY22E/FY23E): 4.6x / 2.7x.
- P/B (FY22E/FY23E): 0.1x / 0.1x.
- Yield: 6.5%.
- ROE (FY22E/FY23E): 2.5% / 4.2%.
-
Valuation Comparison (Peers):
- Tongda: BUY rating.
- BYDE: HOLD rating.
- Ju Teng: No Rating (NR).
- FIH: NR.
- Average P/E (HK-listed): 13.4x / 11.5x.
- Average P/B (HK-listed): 0.7x / 0.6x.
- Average ROE (HK-listed): 3.6% / 5.1%.
Key Financial Highlights (FY20–24E)
| Metric | FY20A | FY21A | FY22E | FY23E | FY24E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (HK$ mn) | 9,759 | 9,969 | 8,289 | 8,974 | 10,048 |
| YoY Growth (%) | 6.2% | 2.2% | -16.9% | 8.3% | 12.0% |
| Net Profit (HK$ mn) | 351.4 | 228.2 | 206.5 | 354.4 | 406.0 |
| YoY Growth (%) | -12.5% | -35.1% | -9.5% | 71.6% | 14.6% |
| EPS (HK$ cents) | 4.95 | 2.89 | 2.62 | 4.49 | 5.14 |
| P/E (x) | 10.0 | 13.8 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| P/B (x) | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| ROE (%) | 5.6 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| Net Gearing (%) | 32.6 | 26.8 | 25.1 | 7.8 | 12.5 |
Revenue Breakdown (FY20–24E)
| Segment | FY20 | FY21 | 1H22 | 2H22E | FY22E | FY23E | FY24E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Handsets | 7,558 | 7,281 | 2,859 | 2,742 | 5,602 | 5,602 | 5,875 |
| Metal | 890 | 740 | 255 | 166 | 421 | 330 | 330 |
| Glastic | 4,143 | 3,948 | 1,467 | 1,208 | 2,675 | 2,558 | 2,354 |
| Apple | 2,017 | 2,333 | 1,137 | 1,359 | 2,496 | 2,665 | 2,691 |
| Electrical appliances | 688 | 536 | 228 | 150 | 378 | 435 | 478 |
| Network communications | 704 | 1,014 | 506 | 508 | 1,014 | 1,318 | 1,671 |
| Total | 9,759 | 9,969 | 4,267 | 4,022 | 8,289 | 8,974 | 10,048 |
P&L Forecast (FY20–24E)
| Metric | FY20 | FY21 | 1H22 | 2H22E | FY22E | FY23E | FY24E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (HK$ mn) | 9,759 | 9,969 | 4,267 | 4,022 | 8,289 | 8,974 | 10,048 |
| Gross Profit (HK$ mn) | 1,710 | 1,640 | 772 | 720 | 1,493 | 1,639 | 1,817 |
| Operating Profit (HK$ mn) | 502 | 319 | 107 | 206 | 313 | 466 | 513 |
| Net Profit (HK$ mn) | 351 | 228 | 33 | 156 | 206 | 354 | 406 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 17.5% | 16.5% | 18.1% | 17.9% | 18.0% | 18.3% | 18.1% |
| Operating Margin (%) | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% |
| Net Margin (%) | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) (%) | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% |
Key Catalysts
- Upcoming product launches by Apple and Meta in AR/VR devices.
- Potential growth from the auto business, driven by favorable policies in China and CATL as a major customer.
- Expected market share gains from new iPhone orders in 2H22E.
Investment Recommendation
- Rating: Maintain BUY.
- Target Price: HK$ 0.22.
- Reason: Current valuation (4.6x/2.7x FY22E/FY23E P/E) is considered attractive, well below historical averages. The stock is expected to benefit from growth in AR/VR and auto sectors in the coming years.
Analyst Certification
- The research analyst certifies that the views expressed accurately reflect personal views and that no compensation is directly or indirectly related to the specific views in the report.
- No trading or dealing in the stock covered in the report within 30 days prior to the report's issue, and no such activity planned within 3 business days after.
Risk and Disclaimer
- This report is for informational purposes only and not tailored to individual investors.
- Past performance is not indicative of future results.
- The value of investments is uncertain and may fluctuate.
- CMBIGM is not liable for any losses or damages incurred from reliance on the report.
- The report is based on publicly available information and may be subject to change without notice.
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