20220728-马银证券_香港_-每日港股简评_2页_144kb

Market Overview Summary

Core Content

The Hong Kong stock markets experienced a correction following the downturn in the Chinese property sector. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its growth projections for China downward, reducing the forecast for 2022E by 1.1 percentage points and for 2023E by 0.5 percentage points. This adjustment is attributed to prolonged lockdowns and the intensifying real estate crisis. China's GDP growth is now expected to be 3.3% in 2022E and 4.6% in 2023E. The Hang Seng Index declined by 235 points to 20,670 points, with a daily turnover of HKD87.2 billion. The U.S. Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points for the second consecutive month, but Powell suggested that rate hikes would likely slow in the future, which positively impacted U.S. markets.

Key Company News

Alibaba-SW (9988 HK)

• Listing Status Change: Alibaba announced plans to convert its secondary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx) to a primary listing by the end of 2022E. This would make it a dual primary listed company on both the NYSE (via ADSs) and HKEx (via ordinary shares).
• Regulatory Impact: The company will face additional regulations from the HKEx, including financial guarantees and stock pledges disclosures.
• Market Expectations: The dual-primary listing is anticipated to remove barriers to inclusion in the Southbound Stock Connect scheme and enhance liquidity. Market expects Alibaba's inclusion in the scheme to occur in 2023E, potentially leading to long-term capital inflow and share price support.

HKEx (388 HK)

• Southbound Inclusion Timeline: The timetable for Alibaba's inclusion in the Southbound Stock Connect is uncertain. Given its non-traditional shareholding structure, it may take an additional 6 months or more after conversion to be included.
• Turnover Impact: Alibaba's average daily turnover in the past 90 trading days was USD746 million. With a 44% tradable market cap in Hong Kong, its trading velocity is about 21% of that in the U.S. Full conversion is estimated to increase Hong Kong's daily turnover by 4%.

CR Beer (291 HK)

• Earnings Outlook: The market expects CR Beer's earnings growth to accelerate in the second half of 2022E, partly due to a low base caused by summer flooding and the Delta outbreak.
• Cost Trends: Based on current commodity prices and cost-control efforts, the company's full-year unit COGS is expected to rise by 5–6% YoY.
• Market Dynamics: The China beer market remains rational, with major players focusing on premium growth, ASP, and margins rather than volume or market share. The market remains positive about the long-term premiumization trend and believes CR Beer will benefit from sector margin expansion.

Lee & Man Paper (2314 HK)

• Profit Warning: The company warned of a 59% YoY decline in net profit for the first half of 2022E, expected to reach around HKD820 million.
• Reasons for Decline: The drop in earnings is primarily due to a decline in gross profit margin, driven by higher production costs, including pulp and domestic waste paper prices.
• Second Half Outlook: Market attention is expected to shift from raw material price increases to product price trends. With increasing supply and weak demand, industry inventory is piling up, which is likely to pressure Lee & Man's earnings in 2H22E.

Huaneng Power (902 HK)

• First Half Results: Huaneng Power reported a consolidated operating revenue of RMB116.8 billion (+22.6% YoY) but a net loss of RMB3.22 billion (-176% YoY).
• Power Generation Decline: Total on-grid power generation in 1H22E was 196 billion kWh (-5.6% YoY), primarily due to lower electricity demand in its operational regions and higher-than-expected fuel costs (+50.4% YoY).
• Earnings Revision: The net loss aligns with previous profit alerts, and market expects earnings consensus to be revised downward following the results announcement.

Disclaimer

This document is for general information purposes only and does not constitute investment research or recommendations. MIB Securities (HK) Ltd does not independently verify the information and accepts no liability for reliance on its contents. The information may be subject to change, and there may be discrepancies between fundamental, technical, and quantitative opinions. MIB (HK) may have financial interests in the companies mentioned, and the content is not intended to solicit the purchase or sale of any securities.