战略与国际研究中心-War-in-Iraq_65页_887kb

Summary of "War in Iraq: The Public Perspectives" by ABC News

Core Content

This document presents an analysis of public opinion regarding the war in Iraq from both Iraqi and American perspectives, using data from ABC News and Gallup polls. It examines the perceived value of the war in terms of costs and benefits, and discusses the political and social consequences of the conflict.

Main Views

• Public Opinion on the War's Worth: Two-thirds of Americans believe the war in Iraq is not worth fighting, weighing the costs (casualties, financial, and goodwill) against the benefits (security, stability).
• Persuasive Rationale: The perception of the war's worth is not solely based on casualties, but also on whether a clear and persuasive rationale has been provided for sustaining the war.
• Political Consequences: The document highlights the long-term impact of the war on public support for the administration, drawing comparisons to historical figures like Harry Truman, who also faced prolonged periods of low approval ratings.
• Life Satisfaction and National Expectations: There is a noticeable decline in life satisfaction and national expectations over time, suggesting a growing sense of disillusionment with the war's outcomes.
• Security Concerns: The U.S. presence in Iraq is viewed with skepticism, and there is a strong perception that the war has not improved security in the region.
• Ethnosectarianism and Governance: Iraq's population is divided along sectarian lines, with significant variations in the proportions of Shiites, Sunni Arabs, Kurds, and non-Muslims according to different sources.
• Experience of Violence: There is a high level of exposure to local violence, including car bombs, snipers, and sectarian fighting. The perception of unnecessary violence by U.S. forces and militias is also prevalent.
• Immediate Withdrawal: A majority of respondents support an immediate withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq, indicating a strong desire to end the conflict.

Key Information

• Polling Data: The document includes data from multiple polls conducted by ABC News and its partners, including:
  • ABC News/Washington Post Polls (2004-2008)
  • ABC News/BBC/ARD/NHK Polls (2005-2008)
• Sampling Details: Polls were conducted with varying sample sizes and sampling points, with special attention to areas like Anbar, Basra, Kirkuk, Mosul, and Sadr City in 2008.
• Demographics: The ethnosectarian composition of Iraq is presented with data from the CIA World Factbook, Library of Congress, and ABC News polls, highlighting the significant Sunni minority and the Kurdish population.
• Visual Aids: Graphs and charts are used to illustrate public sentiment over time, including the percentage of people who believe the war was worth fighting, life satisfaction levels, and perceptions of violence.
• References: The document cites studies on the historical role of casualties in domestic support for U.S. military operations and the myth of casualty aversion.

Conclusion

The war in Iraq has had a profound impact on both American and Iraqi public opinion, with a majority of Americans believing it was not worth the cost. The document underscores the importance of clear rationale and defined goals in maintaining public support for military interventions. It also highlights the ongoing challenges of governance, security, and life satisfaction in Iraq, and the widespread desire for an immediate withdrawal of U.S. forces.