2015年-ECB欧洲央行_Liquidity_conditions_and_monetary_policy_operations_in_the_period_from_22_July_to_27_October_2015_4页_208kb

ECB Monetary Policy Operations and Liquidity Conditions (22 July to 27 October 2015)

Core Content

During the period from 22 July to 27 October 2015, the European Central Bank (ECB) conducted monetary policy operations in the fifth and sixth reserve maintenance periods. The ECB maintained the interest rates on the main refinancing operations (MROs), marginal lending facility, and deposit facility at 0.05%, 0.30%, and -0.20% respectively. The fifth targeted longer-term refinancing operation (TLTRO) settled for €15.5 billion, significantly lower than the previous TLTRO in June, which was €73.8 billion. The total amount allocated in the first five TLTROs reached €399.6 billion.

The Eurosystem continued its asset purchase programme (APP), buying public sector securities, covered bonds, and asset-backed securities at a targeted rate of €60 billion per month.

Main Points

• Liquidity Needs:
  The average daily liquidity needs of the banking system increased by €38.4 billion to €646.5 billion. This increase was primarily due to a rise in autonomous liquidity factors, which increased by €36.7 billion to €533.5 billion.

  • Net Foreign Assets: Decreased by €26.5 billion to €623.2 billion due to the euro's appreciation against the US dollar.
  • Net Assets Denominated in Euro: Decreased by €24.8 billion to €519.3 billion.
  • Government Deposits: Declined by €6.3 billion to €79.3 billion, continuing a downward trend since September 2014.
  • Banknotes in Circulation: Increased by €19.4 billion to €1,053.9 billion, partially offsetting the decline in other liquidity-absorbing factors.

• Volatility of Autonomous Factors:
  Autonomous factors remained volatile, primarily due to fluctuations in government deposits and the quarterly revaluation of net foreign assets and net euro assets. However, this volatility was weaker than in the previous review period, while the level of autonomous factors continued to trend upwards.

• Forecasting Errors:
  The average absolute error in weekly forecasts of autonomous factors remained at €6.4 billion, mainly due to forecasting errors for government deposits. These errors slightly declined but remained the main source of inaccuracy.

Key Information on Liquidity Provided

• Open Market Operations:
  The average amount of liquidity provided through open market operations increased by €193.2 billion to €1,130.4 billion, with outright purchases accounting for 90% of the increase. This was mainly driven by the public sector purchase programme.

• Tender Operations:
  Average liquidity provided through tender operations increased by €20.2 billion to €533.4 billion, mainly due to the TLTROs. MROs and three-month LTROs saw a decrease in liquidity provision, but this was more than offset by the TLTROs, which increased by €55.5 billion to €388.5 billion.

• Outright Portfolios:
  The average liquidity provided through outright portfolios increased by €173.0 billion to €597.0 billion, primarily due to the public sector purchase programme. The third covered bond purchase programme and the asset-backed securities purchase programme also contributed to the increase.

Excess Liquidity

• Average Excess Liquidity:
  Increased by €154.7 billion to €483.9 billion, driven by the continued rise in excess liquidity and the Eurosystem's monetary policy operations.

  • Fifth Maintenance Period: Excess liquidity rose by €91.3 billion.
  • Sixth Maintenance Period: Excess liquidity increased by €41.6 billion, but the growth was weaker due to the rise in autonomous factors, which partially absorbed the increase from the APP.

• Current Accounts:
  Increased by €107.5 billion to €446.9 billion, with a fairly even distribution between the two maintenance periods.

• Deposit Facility Usage:
  Average recourse to the deposit facility increased by €49.1 billion to €150.4 billion, though less than the increase in current accounts.

Interest Rate Developments

• Money Market Rates:
  Continued to decline due to increased excess liquidity and market participants' growing acceptance of negative rates.
  • EONIA: Averaged -0.130%, down from -0.107% in the previous period. The decline was most pronounced in the sixth maintenance period, where EONIA averaged -0.139%, a decrease of 0.018 percentage points.
  • Secured Overnight Rates: Fell close to the deposit facility rate, with some specific securities used as collateral even having rates below the deposit facility rate.
  • GC Pooling Market Rates: Standard and extended collateral baskets averaged -0.187% and -0.184%, respectively, down 0.007 and 0.014 percentage points from the previous review period.

Summary

The ECB's monetary policy operations during the period from 22 July to 27 October 2015 were characterized by stable interest rates, increased liquidity provision through TLTROs and the APP, and a notable rise in excess liquidity. The increase in liquidity needs was driven by higher autonomous factors, primarily due to changes in government deposits and net foreign assets, while the volatility of these factors remained a key challenge. The ECB's interventions played a crucial role in managing liquidity conditions and supporting the banking system.