2015年-世界发展银行全球_Drivers_of_Poverty_Reduction_in_Lao_PDR_44页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary of Lao PDR Poverty Policy Notes

Core Content

This policy note analyzes poverty dynamics and economic mobility in Lao PDR between 2002/3 and 2012/13, highlighting the factors that have driven poverty reduction and the challenges that remain. It also outlines policy implications for further poverty alleviation.

Main Points

Poverty Reduction and Wellbeing Improvements

Poverty Declined: Poverty in Lao PDR decreased from 33.5% to 23.2% over the 10-year period, translating to a reduction of about half a million poor people.
MDG Achievement: The country met the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) target of halving extreme poverty by 2015.
Improved Living Standards: There were significant improvements in social indicators such as access to electricity, ownership of television, and housing quality. Over 80% of households had electricity access in 2012/13, and nearly 80% of households lived in houses with bricks or concrete.
Education Gains: Net secondary enrollment increased from 27% in 2002/3 to 50% in 2012/13, showing notable progress in education.

Economic Mobility and Churning

High Mobility: Economic mobility was high, with significant numbers of households moving in and out of poverty.
Churning Observed: About 63% of the poor in 2007/8 moved out of poverty by 2012/13, but 14% of non-poor households fell back into poverty.
Consumption Levels: Most households that exited poverty did so by small margins, remaining close to the poverty line, which exposed them to high vulnerability.
Income Growth: The overall growth elasticity of poverty was low (-0.47), indicating that consumption growth among the poor was less than that of the non-poor.

Drivers of Poverty

Labor Income: Increases in labor income, particularly from agriculture and non-farm activities, were key to poverty reduction.
Education: Education was a major driver, with complete primary education associated with higher agricultural productivity and lower secondary education facilitating the transition to non-farm employment.
Access to Land: Improved access to land in rural areas contributed to poverty reduction.
Non-farm Job Creation: Non-farm job creation played a critical role in reducing poverty, especially in the service sector.

Household Vulnerability

Agricultural Households: These were the most vulnerable, as they were more likely to fall back into poverty due to shocks such as falling rice prices and loss of land.
Health Shocks: Catastrophic out-of-pocket health expenditures also increased vulnerability, particularly for those without health insurance.
Ethnic Minorities: Ethnic minorities, especially the Mon-Khmer and Hmong-Lu-Mien groups, had a higher probability of falling into poverty than other groups.
Remittances and Assets: Households with remittances or productive assets were less vulnerable.

Policy Implications

Broad-Based Growth: Poverty reduction could have been higher if economic growth had been more inclusive, particularly in sectors that create jobs and improve productivity.
Non-farm Sector Development: Enhancing the non-farm sector through improved regulatory and business environments is crucial for creating more jobs and increasing productivity.
Education Investment: Continued investment in education is necessary to equip people with the skills needed for non-farm employment.
Social Protection: Strengthening social safety nets and insurance systems, especially in rural areas, will help mitigate vulnerability.
Agricultural Resilience: Improving agricultural productivity and resilience is essential for sustaining livelihoods and reducing poverty.

Key Information

Currency Equivalents: 1 USD = 8,138 LAK (Lao Kip) as of October 9, 2015.
Data Sources: The analysis is based on data from the Lao Expenditure and Consumption Surveys (LECS) 3-5 and the Lao Statistics Bureau.
Supporting Organizations: The policy note was supported by the Australian Government, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), and the World Bank.
Author: Obert Pimhidzai, Economist, GPVDR.
Contributors: Nina Fenton, Clarence Tsimpo, Lars M. Sondergaard, Sergiy Zorya.

Structure

Executive Summary
Background - Poverty Dynamics and Economic Mobility in Lao PDR
Poverty Reduction Continued and Other Aspects of Wellbeing Improved
Economic Mobility Was High, with Both Downwards and Upwards Movements
Drivers of Poverty in Lao PDR
Conclusion and Policy Implications

List of Figures

Figure 1: Trends in poverty in Lao PDR: 2002/3 - 2012/13
Figure 2: Social indicators in Lao PDR: 2002/3 - 2012/13
Figure 3: Economic mobility in Lao PDR: 2002/3 - 2012/13
Figure 4: Poverty rate by socio-economic characteristics: 2002/3 - 2012/13
Figure 5: Poverty rate by province: 2012/13
Figure 6: Asset-based framework for poverty reduction

List of Tables

Table 1: Poverty transitions in Lao PDR: 2002/3 - 2012/13
Table 2: Poverty transitions in Lao PDR: 2002/3 - 2012/13
Table 3: Profile of gainers and sliders
Table 4: Selected agriculture indicators by education level of household head
Table 5: Education attainment of subsistence agriculture workers by age group: 2012/13
Table 6: Net rice buyers and sellers by welfare status
Table 7: Summary of the LECS 3 - LECS 5 survey samples and the panel
Table 8: Year of birth and gender match in panel households
Table 9: Comparison of panel and non-panel households
Table 10: Probit marginal effect estimates for the probability of exiting poverty: 2007/8 – 2012/13
Table 11: Probit marginal effects estimates for the probability of entering into poverty

Conclusion

The document emphasizes the need for a more inclusive and equitable growth strategy, focusing on job creation, education, and social protection systems to ensure sustainable poverty reduction in Lao PDR.

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