2009年-世界发展银行全球_Shaping_the_Future___Long-Term_Perspectives_on_People_and_Job_Mobility_for_MENA_4页_681kb

MENA Knowledge and Learning: Quick Notes Series

SHAPING THE FUTURE: LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVES ON PEOPLE & JOB MOBILITY FOR MENA
By Leila Zlaoui

Core Content

This Quick Note summarizes a report analyzing global labor and job mobility trends, focusing on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Europe. It explores how demographic changes, globalization, and migration will shape labor markets over the long term, and what policy actions are needed to address these challenges.

Main Viewpoints

• Globalization and Labor Mobility: Globalization influences labor markets through both migration and outsourcing/off-shoring. These processes are driven by the need for cost savings, technology upgrades, and skilled labor.
• MENA's Role in Global Labor Markets: MENA migrants contribute significantly to foreign exchange earnings (remittances), employment, and economic growth in host countries. However, the quality of labor remains a concern.
• Demographic Challenges:
  • MENA is experiencing a demographic bulge, requiring nearly 4 million jobs per year to absorb the growing labor force and reduce unemployment.
  • Europe faces an aging population and labor force decline, with two retirees per active worker by 2050.
• Migration and Job Creation:
  • Migration is not a panacea for job creation in MENA or for Europe’s aging population, but it can be part of a comprehensive policy approach.
  • Outsourcing and in-sourcing offer additional avenues for employment, especially in business services and ICT.
• Skill Gaps and Education:
  • The current education system in MENA is not aligned with the global labor market demands, leading to a low match of skilled labor.
  • Women's participation and improved educational outcomes are critical to enhancing MENA’s global competitiveness.
• Challenges of Migration:
  • Irregular migration subjects workers to poor conditions, health risks, and social marginalization.
  • Brain drain is a major issue, as many educated workers leave for foreign countries, draining the home labor market.

Key Information

• MENA's Migration Trends:

  • Migration has a long history in the region, with a significant surge in the 1960s and 1970s due to labor demand in Europe and the Gulf.
  • Young workers (15–39) are the primary potential migrants, expected to increase by 570 million globally by 2050.
  • MENA is projected to contribute 44 million additional workers in this age group, making it a key region for migration.

• Global Job Mobility Projections:

  • Without migration, 216 million workers would be lost in regions like Central Asia, East Asia, Europe, and North America by 2050.
  • The European Union alone would lose 66 million workers, or one-third of its current workforce.

• Policy Recommendations:

  • Invest in education and women's inclusion to improve labor force quality and participation.
  • Reform education systems to emphasize STEM fields and business services.
  • Enhance the investment climate and social protection to support both domestic job creation and sustainable migration.
  • Promote collaboration between governments, businesses, donors, and NGOs to address global labor mobility challenges.

Conclusion

Migration and job mobility are key factors in shaping the future of labor markets in both MENA and Europe. While migration offers opportunities, it is not a standalone solution. A proactive and collaborative approach, including education reform and improved labor policies, is essential to enhance competitiveness, address skill shortages, and promote inclusive globalization. The urgency of action is clear, as the supply of skilled labor is inelastic in the short term, and long-term planning is necessary to meet future labor demands.