2015年-世界发展银行全球_Somalia_Economic_Update_October_2015___Transition_Amid_Risks_with_a_Special_Focus_on_Intergovernmental_Fiscal_Relations_100页_4mb

Somalia Economic Update Summary (October 2015)

Core Content Overview

This document provides an economic update for Somalia, focusing on the state of the economy, governance challenges, and the importance of intergovernmental fiscal relations in the context of the country's transition from conflict to stability. It highlights progress made in recent years and outlines key challenges that need to be addressed to ensure sustainable development.

Main Messages and Key Recommendations

• Development Challenge: Somalia faces a significant development challenge due to the legacy of two decades of conflict and fragility. However, substantial progress is being made, especially in rebuilding institutions and improving economic performance.
• Economic Recovery: The economy is beginning to respond to reforms, with Somalis returning from abroad, shops opening, and a booming property market.
• Fiscal Reforms: The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has initiated structural, legislative, and institutional reforms to improve public financial management and fiscal capacity.
• Private Sector: The private sector has been vital in maintaining economic activity, but it may reach the limits of its potential without further reforms in security and access to finance.
• Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations: These are critical for economic solidarity and addressing regional inequities. The design of fiscal arrangements must ensure a balance between functional responsibilities and revenue availability.
• Sustainable Fiscal Bargain: Somali stakeholders should develop a sustainable fiscal bargain incrementally, renegotiating as circumstances and interests evolve.
• Institutional Development: Robust institutions are needed to facilitate ongoing fiscal negotiations and ensure effective governance.

Economic Status

1. Social and Poverty Status

• Young Population: Somalia has a young and rapidly growing population, with more than 70% under the age of 30.
• Weak Social Indicators: Despite progress, social indicators remain weak, with high levels of poverty and inequality.
• Education Deficit: Only 42% of school-age children are enrolled in primary school, with 36% being girls.
• High Unemployment: About 67% of 14- to 29-year-olds are unemployed, making youth particularly vulnerable to recruitment into militia or radicalized groups.

2. The State of the Economy

• Real Sector: The real sector is showing signs of recovery, with increased economic activity and investment.
• Monetary and Financial Sector: The Central Bank of Somalia recognizes 48 financial institutions, indicating some level of financial system development.
• International Trade: Imports dominate the economy, and Somalia exports far fewer goods than it imports, leading to a significant current account deficit.
• Fiscal Policy: Revenue mobilization efforts are showing results, but expenditure remains concentrated on salaries and security, leading to budgetary arrears.
• Debt Arrears: Somalia owes an estimated $5.3 billion to multilateral and bilateral creditors, highlighting the need for debt relief eligibility.

Governance

1. Public Financial Management (PFM)

• Legal Framework: The legal and regulatory framework for PFM is inadequate and in the process of being revamped.
• Procurement Rules: These need strengthening to improve transparency and efficiency.
• Oversight Institutions: New oversight institutions are being established to enhance accountability and management of public finances.

2. Anti-Corruption and Accountability

• Corruption and weak governance continue to hinder economic development, and efforts to improve accountability are crucial for long-term stability.

Outlook for 2015-17

• Security Importance: Security remains a key factor in economic development and investment.
• Reforms Needed: Continued reforms in economic and fiscal management are essential to spur growth and ensure sustainable development.

Special Focus: Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations

Key Principles

• Intergovernmental fiscal relations should be designed sequentially and focus on economic solidarity.
• Revenue and expenditure responsibilities must be clearly assigned to ensure fair distribution and address regional inequities.

Challenges

• Tax Base Allocation: Current state administrations are occupying most available tax bases, limiting the federal government's role in redistribution.
• Interregional Inequity: Inequitable distribution of resources is a fundamental cause of conflict and must be addressed in fiscal arrangements.
• Customs Barriers: Without a fair fiscal arrangement, states may erect domestic customs barriers, which could undermine economic growth.

International Experience

• Chile and Germany: Have fraternal intergovernmental transfer systems that support equity and stability.
• Australia: Has evolved a fiscal architecture that supports federal and subnational coordination.
• Bosnia and Herzegovina: Achieved fiscal integration through tax reform, offering a model for Somalia.

Fiscal Arrangements

• Functions and Spending: The theory and current practice of assigning functions and spending responsibilities must align with revenue capabilities.
• Revenue Assignment: Theoretical and practical approaches to revenue assignment are critical in ensuring equitable fiscal distribution.
• Transfers: Transfers should be designed to address interregional inequities, either from the central government or better-off states.
• Case Study: Oil and Gas: Highlighting the need for a clear fiscal framework to manage shared resources effectively.

Institutions and Processes

• Supporting Institutions: Three types of institutions can support dynamic and responsive intergovernmental fiscal relations: legislative, oversight, and technical.
• Technical Committee: A technical committee can help in designing fiscal arrangements by focusing on shared functions and responsibilities.

Conclusion

• Fiscal Capacity: Increasing the state's fiscal capacity is essential for long-term development.
• Collaboration: Collaboration between the federal government and subnational entities is necessary to ensure effective fiscal management and equitable resource distribution.
• Ongoing Negotiations: The focus should be on developing robust institutions to facilitate ongoing fiscal negotiations and address the challenges of state formation and fiscal integration.